World Silver Survey: 46.3M oz Shortfall Tightens Market

The World Silver Survey 2026, published by the Silver Institute and researched by Metals Focus, found a 46.3 million-ounce shortfall as global demand exceeded supply for a fifth consecutive year in 2025.

Total silver demand fell 2% to 1.13 billion ounces in 2025, the report shows. Investment demand rose sharply and helped keep inventories under pressure despite the decline in overall demand.

Investment flows increased, with coin and net bar purchases up 14%, nearly offsetting weaker demand in other segments. Industrial silver demand dropped 3% to 657.4 million ounces after four years of growth. Electrical and electronics demand fell 2% while spending on AI infrastructure, automotive production and power grid projects provided some support.

Photovoltaic demand weakened as higher silver raw material costs and stronger competition prompted solar manufacturers to accelerate thrifting and use substitutes. Demand for brazing alloys rose 1%, supported by activity in the auto and aerospace sectors. Other industrial demand declined 7% because of a slowdown in the ethylene oxide market.

Regional demand patterns varied. Most losses came from East and South Asia while Europe and North America were broadly stable. Coin and net bar interest rose in several markets: India led with a 33% increase, Europe recorded its first rise in three years, and the Middle East and China posted multi-fold gains from a low base. The United States recorded a third straight yearly decline in coin demand; the report links that trend in part to reduced safe-haven buying after the election of President Trump and profit-taking during the price rally earlier in the year.

Global mine production increased 3% to 846.6 million ounces in 2025, driven largely by stronger by-product output from copper operations in Peru and the ramp-up of Polymetal JSC’s Prognoz mine in Russia. Smaller gains in China and Morocco were offset by weaker output from key operations in Mexico and lower production in Indonesia.

By region, North American output fell 3% to its lowest level in a decade. Central and South American production rose 5% and Asia slipped 1%. Lead and zinc mines remained the largest source of silver although their share edged lower; output from gold operations rose 5% and from copper operations rose 6%.

Recycling rose 2% to 197.6 million ounces in 2025, the highest level in 12 years. Much of the recycled supply came from heavy selling of jewelry and silverware, while refinery bottlenecks limited the volumes that reached the market. In industrial recycling, scrap from ethylene oxide increased and electronic scrap declined.

The Silver Institute forecasts total silver demand will fall about 2% in 2026 to roughly 1.11 billion ounces. Jewelry and silverware are expected to post double-digit declines amid high prices. Industrial demand is projected to drop about 3%, mainly because photovoltaic offtake is expected to weaken further. Coin and net bar demand is forecast to rise about 18%, while global mine production is expected to be roughly flat, leaving a structural deficit near 46.3 million ounces in 2026.

Analysts at BlackRock and JPMorgan project silver could trade above $80 per ounce by the end of 2026, with $100 per ounce possible by 2030.