College Super Bowl rumors trigger Kalshi insider reviews

College rumors about celebrity Super Bowl attendance jolted prediction markets and triggered insider-trading reviews at Kalshi. Odds on Jeff Bezos appearing fell from roughly 70% to about 30%, and an unverified tip about Mark Wahlberg fueled more than $24 million in trading volume.

Students and alumni group chats helped spread tips before the game. At the University of Miami, members of Sigma Alpha Epsilon began wagering that Bezos would not attend after information moved through fraternity circles linked to Evan Whitesell, Bezos’ stepson, according to people who placed trades. Those traders attributed the tip to Whitesell but indicated they did not hear it from him directly.

A separate wave of bets centered on whether Wahlberg would show up. That rumor circulated at Clemson University fraternities, where Wahlberg’s daughter, Ella, is enrolled. A member of Delta Chi recounted that she told peers in texts he would appear and described the bet as “literally free money.” The actor did not attend. The unverified claim drove heavy market activity.

Kalshi indicated it is reviewing the Bezos and Wahlberg markets for possible insider trading. The company has increased public enforcement disclosures, announcing in late February that it closed two insider trading cases. An industry group that includes Kalshi also ran a full-page newspaper ad earlier this year pushing back on claims that prediction markets encourage insider trading.

Concerns extend to geopolitical events. Recent trades on Polymarket reportedly earned several accounts about $1.2 million by betting hours before U.S. military action against Iran. In January, a trader on the same platform reportedly made more than $400,000 by wagering shortly before reports of an operation targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Polymarket has not publicly addressed those specific trades.

College use of prediction markets has drawn warnings from sports officials. In January, NCAA President Charlie Baker asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to block markets tied to collegiate sports until stronger rules are in place, citing risks to student populations and the potential for sensitive information to move prices.

Lawmakers are responding. U.S. Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced a proposal to bar federal officials from trading in prediction markets to reduce the risk that nonpublic government information could be used for profit. Senator Chris Murphy indicated on Feb. 28 that he is pursuing a similar effort. Several states have introduced bills to restrict prediction markets more broadly, reflecting an ongoing policy debate.

Prediction markets let users buy and sell contracts linked to outcomes of real-world events, with prices reflecting perceived probabilities. The sector is overseen at the federal level under derivatives rules rather than state gambling laws, a structure that some policymakers describe as a gray area for insider-trading enforcement.

The Super Bowl activity showed how private tips and campus gossip can move prices in thinly traded markets. In the Bezos market, odds shifted after information spread through fraternity networks. In the Wahlberg market, high volumes tracked an unverified claim that proved incorrect.

Kalshi’s reviews of the two Super Bowl markets are ongoing, and proposals in Washington would limit who can trade and set clearer boundaries for markets tied to government actions and college sports.