World Cup wagers surge; CFTC clears prediction markets

Macquarie Capital projects roughly $50 billion in wagers for the 2026 World Cup, up from about $35 billion in 2022. The tournament will include 48 teams and 104 matches across the United States, Mexico and Canada. Operators say the expanded schedule and access to prediction markets in all 50 states are increasing event volume and offering opportunities to acquire customers and cross-sell iCasino products.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission published a 267-page proposal that generally permits prediction markets to offer sports-related contracts. The notice states contracts tied to unlawful activity, terrorism, assassination, war and other national-security matters may be considered contrary to the public interest and subject to restriction.

DraftKings reported $1.3 billion in “annualized consumer volume” and $3.1 billion in “annualized total volume” on its new exchange product, with month-over-month increases of 24% and 34%. The company’s stock rose during the week. CEO Jason Robins highlighted the company’s confidence in prediction markets as another distribution channel for its sports and daily fantasy customers.

FanDuel reported layoffs affecting “a few hundred” employees out of about 5,000. The company also added a prediction-market partnership with Crypto.com while maintaining its joint venture with CME Group, which holds a majority stake in FanDuel Predicts.

During an NBA Finals game, the New York Knicks erased a 29-point deficit in Game 4. New York was priced at +2200 on the live moneyline at one point, attracting heavy in-play betting. DraftKings’ sportsbook director Johnny Avello described the in-play action as “huge.” Trading desks and liquidity providers reported significant losses, and one regulated exchange posted a record day for volume. Many bettors who backed the Knicks received large payouts when markets settled.

A Texas judge granted quarterback Brendan Sorsby a temporary injunction allowing him to play for Texas Tech despite prior betting on team-related outcomes while at another program. Several college athletic directors objected to the ruling.

Market analysts noted that reported “annualized” volumes extrapolate short-term activity over a longer period and require careful interpretation. Firms that provide liquidity to exchanges are adjusting risk models to handle more volatile in-play trading, and operators are preparing to manage customer acquisition and retention during the World Cup.

Regulators, operators and market makers will monitor betting flows during the tournament to track volume changes and how firms manage liquidity and large live payouts in the weeks ahead.