World Cup Fuels $31B Kalshi Surge; Teleprompter Aide Accused

Kalshi recorded $31 billion in trades in June, with World Cup markets making up more than 72% of that volume. The exchange posted single-day highs of about $2.1 billion on a quarterfinal Saturday and roughly $1.3 billion across two semifinal days. Other U.S. prediction platforms handled multibillion-dollar months, and a newly launched product tied to a brokerage app recorded about $2 billion in its first month. Firms reported rising downloads and new accounts ahead of the U.S. football season.

Gabriel Perez, who has operated the White House teleprompter since 2016, faces allegations that he used his position to profit from wagers tied to presidential remarks. Regulators allege Perez placed trades that returned more than $100,000 after bets on the State of the Union and other speeches. One platform flagged the trading patterns and notified the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; Perez is negotiating a settlement with federal regulators.

Legal and customer-relations issues appeared alongside market growth. In New York, a judge largely denied a motion to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Nigel Eccles against Flutter Entertainment over the 2018 merger that formed FanDuel’s U.S. business. Eccles wrote on X that the ruling was “an interim but important step” toward presenting evidence in court. Separately, a personalized video recorded for a customer was later repurposed for marketing linking a player to an operator; the player denied awareness that the message would be used commercially. The recipient of the recording is a plaintiff in litigation alleging exploitation of a gambling addiction.

State figures showed uneven demand for traditional sportsbooks. Illinois reported a 10.2% year-over-year decline in handle for May and 21% fewer wagers than the same month last year. Industry participants cited a high per-wager tax and competition from prediction markets as factors. Hawthorne Race Course was sold to an out-of-state buyer that has indicated no plans to continue live racing at the facility.

Bets on marquee events concentrated risk at individual operators. One major U.S. sportsbook recorded its most-bet fight ever when a return bout featuring Conor McGregor drew 85% of tickets and 73% of dollar volume on McGregor. McGregor left the bout with a knee injury in the first round; his team has requested a no-contest ruling to allow refunds for bettors.

Platforms are expanding contracts beyond sports. One exchange introduced self-certified contracts tied to flight cancellations intended to provide rapid hedges for businesses and travelers. Regulators have increased scrutiny as prediction markets grow; the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened inquiries when trading patterns suggested an insider advantage. Market operators are seeking clearer rules on allowable contracts and reporting obligations as they scale.