Trader buys $2.5B in Bitcoin July call spread to $72K

Deribit data shows more than 20,000 call contracts open at both the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes for the July 31 expiry. Deribit’s chief commercial officer, Jean-David Péquignot, described a large block that bought 20,000 calls at $70,000 and sold 20,000 calls at $72,000.

Exchange open interest at the time of reporting registered roughly 27,000 contracts at the $70,000 strike and about 21,000 at $72,000. With Bitcoin near $64,289, the $70,000 strike was about 8.9% above spot. At prevailing prices, the two legs represent roughly $2.5 billion in aggregate gross notional. Premium paid, capital committed and net exposure are separate measures from that figure.

Under the reported structure, the purchased $70,000 calls provide upside above that strike while the sold $72,000 calls lower the upfront cost and cap further gains. The spread reaches maximum payoff if Bitcoin finishes at or above $72,000 on July 31. Open interest confirms concentration at those strikes but does not identify the trader or whether the position is a hedge, an offset or a directional bet within a larger portfolio.

The options expire two days after the Federal Open Market Committee meets and announces policy on July 29, with the Fed press conference following the decision. From the referenced spot price, the position requires a move through the $69,000 area and into the $70,000–$72,000 band to reach peak payoff by expiry.

A prediction-market snapshot on July 20 assigned a 14.5% probability to Bitcoin touching $70,000 during July and a 4.1% probability to touching $72,500. On-chain analysis from mid-July placed a recent-buyer cost basis near $69,000 and identified a conditional lower stress boundary around $52,891.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows in early and mid-July recorded net inflows of about $272 million over two weeks, while one session produced a $424 million outflow. Those figures reflect recent swings in ETF demand over short periods.

Institutional forecasts and models vary. One analysis outlined a potential low near $38,000 in an early-October scenario. Another mapped initial support zones at $58,000–$59,000 and secondary zones at $48,000–$50,000. A major bank set a 12-month target at $82,000 with a $53,000 bear case. Two other firms published year-end targets of $100,000 and $150,000 respectively.

Deribit’s open interest data and Péquignot’s description confirm a concentrated position at the $70,000–$72,000 strikes that expires on July 31. The structure’s capped payoff and short time frame define the exposure around that expiry date.