Standard Chartered keeps $100,000 Bitcoin year-end target

Standard Chartered reaffirmed a $100,000 target for Bitcoin at year end even after the cryptocurrency briefly fell below $60,000. With Bitcoin trading near $63,400, the bank calculates the asset would need about 57.8% upside, or roughly 0.22% compounded daily through Dec. 31, to reach $100,000.

Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital assets research, described the selloff as “painful” and pointed to several factors behind the pullback. He listed a record run of spot ETF outflows, a symbolic 32-BTC sale by a large holder known as Strategy, and forced liquidations totaling about $1.8 billion during one session. Those events pushed the Crypto Fear and Greed Index to 12 and left Bitcoin more than 51% below its October 2025 all-time high.

Strategy disclosed a repurchase between June 1 and June 7. Standard Chartered noted that buyback as evidence the firm’s prior pattern of repurchasing after sales may be resuming.

The bank set out four conditions it says must align for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by Dec. 31. First, spot ETF flows must stop determining the marginal price; ETFs experienced 13 straight outflow sessions totaling roughly $4.4 billion before flows turned slightly positive in early June. Second, Strategy needs to remain a net buyer. Third, regulatory progress on the CLARITY Act must re-enter institutional planning. Fourth, Bitcoin must reclaim its short- and medium-term trend lines, specifically the 30-day moving average near $75,685 and the 200-day moving average near $78,840.

Standard Chartered trimmed its year-end forecast twice this year, from $300,000 in December to $150,000 in January and then to $100,000 in February. The bank’s June 4 reaffirmation is its first hold on the $100,000 call since the drawdown accelerated.

Markets and other institutions show differing probabilities. Prediction markets place a roughly 66% chance Bitcoin falls below $55,000 this year and about a 50–52% chance it drops under $50,000. Another market assigns about a 21% probability that Bitcoin will exceed $100,000 before January 2027. Institutional models range from Bernstein’s $150,000 year-end target to Citi’s base case above $100,000 with a bull case near $166,000, while a longer-run fair-value model used by another bank pointed toward about $170,000 before the recent crash. One analyst reportedly reduced his estimate of near-term legislative progress because of Senate calendar risk.

Cycle timing and technical levels add further context. Analysts tracking the post-halving rhythm place a historical bottom window around day 900 after the halving; the current cycle sits near day 775, leaving about 125 days until that window in October. If a cycle low occurred near $50,000 in October, Bitcoin would need about 0.76% compounded daily through Dec. 31 to reach $100,000, a faster pace than from current prices. A sustained break below $60,000 over several sessions would redirect attention toward the $50,000 area and the 200-week moving average near $61,778.

The regulatory calendar also affects institutional optionality. EU MiCA enforcement begins July 1, after which crypto-asset service providers without a license must stop serving EU clients.

Standard Chartered is the only major firm to explicitly reaffirm a $100,000 year-end call since the crash. The bank identifies reclaiming the $75,000–$79,000 trend band as the next measurable test before the cycle’s projected bottom window in October.