SpaceX rally reverses as $615M in crypto bets remain

SpaceX shares have fallen roughly 40% from their early post‑IPO high and are trading below the $135 offering price. The stock hit a post‑listing low of $132.28 before recovering to a close of $135.27, down from an opening‑week peak of $225.64. Market value declined from more than $2.8 trillion at peak to about $1.8 trillion, and the value of Elon Musk’s roughly 42% stake fell from about $1.2 trillion to around $760 billion.

Retail investors received about 20% of the IPO allocation. Investors who bought near the June peak are down about 40%, while those who bought after the $150 opening price sit on roughly a 10% loss. Short sellers have recorded an estimated $8.7 billion in paper gains as the shares weakened.

Crypto trading venues continue to carry leveraged exposure to SpaceX. Perpetual futures tied to the Nasdaq‑listed shares showed about $615 million in open interest and roughly $1.6 billion in 24‑hour volume, down from more than $10 billion at the height of the post‑IPO rally. Open interest peaked near $860 million in late June and has mostly remained above $600 million. These perpetual contracts provide synthetic, often leveraged, exposure and do not convey ownership of underlying shares.

Tokenized versions of SpaceX shares exist on blockchains. One token backed by SpaceX assets held nearly $25 million across more than 7,800 holders and recorded about $313 million in transfer volume over the past month. Token ownership differs from holding Nasdaq shares.

Attention is focused on a scheduled unlock that will allow employees and some early investors to sell 911.5 million shares on the second trading day after SpaceX files its first quarterly report, expected in early August. At recent prices, those shares would be worth about $123 billion, compared with roughly $86 billion of stock currently available for public trading. An additional 455.8 million shares could be released early if the stock closes above $175.50 in at least five of the ten trading sessions before the earnings release. By Dec. 8, up to 40% of SpaceX could be eligible for public trading; most remaining shares, including Musk’s stake, are expected to remain restricted until mid‑2027.

Market commentary is mixed. George Noble, a former fund manager, estimated the shares are worth about $30 each, citing the small initial float and rapid index inclusion. Jamie Gull, founder of an investment firm, expects the unlock will prompt some selling by employees and early investors while noting that index funds may absorb part of the added supply. Analysts tracked by LSEG include 27 buy ratings, four neutral and one sell. The upcoming quarterly report will provide the first public financial data since the IPO, with investors watching revenue, spending and funding plans.