Solana could rally if Bitcoin holds above $60,000

On June 25 SOL fell to $64.56 intraday before recovering toward $66.56 while Bitcoin traded between $58,189 and $61,844. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September remained above 60% after the latest PCE reading, a backdrop that market participants say has kept liquidity tight and reduced appetite for high-beta crypto assets.

Nansen data show roughly $137 million in 30-day net bridge inflows to the Solana network and daily SOL volumes above $4 billion. Traders have allocated capital to smaller tokens built on Solana even as SOL’s own price action remained unsettled.

Backpack rose about 356% over 30 days. Solstice’s SLX climbed roughly 92.5% over 30 days and nearly 159% over seven days. CARDS gained about 74% and JTO added 29% over the month. Those token gains occurred before a sustained reversal in SOL.

Nansen senior research analyst Jake Kennis noted that an earlier bounce from June 19 lows, combined with sustained daily volumes and monthly inflows, indicates continued interest in the chain. He added that because SOL gave back prior gains and reached new lows, the question of durability is harder to answer and that winners inside the network need to reinvest on-chain to broaden performance beyond a few isolated token rallies.

Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee pointed to FTX-related asset sales, tighter market liquidity and a rapid surge in HYPE tokens as factors that have captured high-beta demand that might otherwise flow into Solana-adjacent assets. He described those elements as headwinds that limit near-term upside for SOL while leaving Solana’s technical and decentralized finance activity intact.

Economic signals in the Solana ecosystem show changing revenue sources. Memecoin activity has cooled: Pump.fun’s daily revenue declined from about $4.8 million six months ago to roughly $800,000 in June, and its seven-day average token graduation rate fell to about 0.26%, a drop of roughly 80% over three months. At the same time, application-driven fees persist.

Solstice CEO and co-founder Ben Nadareski reported that Solana applications generate about $2.8 million a day in revenue. He pointed to projects such as Collector Crypt, which recorded about $4 million in revenue in a recent week and more than 30% of buyers redeeming physical cards. Tokenized equities on Solana count more than 170,000 holders and roughly $500 million in assets on-chain.

Solana’s May report listed $2.8 billion in real-world asset value on the network, 97% of cumulative on-chain spot trading volume for tokenized equities, and $16.4 billion in stablecoin supply. Data from market trackers show spot trading volume for tokenized assets nearly tripled from about $1 billion in May to almost $3 billion in June.

Analysts and market participants have described two thresholds for a confirmed rotation into Solana: SOL retaking $70 and Bitcoin holding above $60,000. Some stakeholders note that Solana’s value-capture structure directs most economic returns to applications rather than to SOL itself, which could separate application revenue trends from direct price pressure on the token.

At present the network records roughly $137 million in 30-day inflows, about $2.8 million in daily app revenue and significant tokenized-asset activity, while SOL’s price action has not yet met the technical thresholds that analysts cite for a broad-based rally.