Prediction markets, Q2 earnings and June betting revenue

The House Agriculture Subcommittee on Commodity Markets, Digital Assets and Rural Development will hold a July 21 hearing titled “Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets.” Lawmakers plan to examine customer protections, market integrity and whether event contracts should be treated as gambling products or fall under the Commodity Exchange Act. The session follows prior congressional testimony and a Senate subcommittee hearing that raised questions about insider trading, war-related markets and ties between political figures and prediction platforms.

Market estimates show prediction markets captured a larger share of legal U.S. sports-betting activity during the recent FIFA World Cup, rising to about 27% from roughly 9% earlier in the year. Separate estimates put June trading volume for prediction contracts above $50 billion. Those figures have increased attention on how prediction markets operate and how they are regulated.

Commercial activity in the sector has expanded. Underdog has launched a standalone prediction market exchange after acquiring Aristotle Exchange, a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization, earlier this year. Aristotle recently self-certified seven event-contract categories. The new exchange will list contract types, seek state registrations where required and begin accumulating trading volume and user activity.

Legal disputes remain active. Kalshi is seeking an injunction pending appeal after a federal judge denied a preliminary injunction; state officials have until July 22 to respond. Ireland’s gambling regulator has threatened High Court proceedings against Polymarket unless the platform stops offering services in that market. Additional filings, responses and rulings are possible in ongoing cases across multiple jurisdictions.

Earnings season shifts attention to traditional casino operators. Monarch Casino & Resort is scheduled to report second-quarter results on July 20, Las Vegas Sands on July 22 and Boyd Gaming on July 23. Market participants will track Las Vegas and Nevada performance, any commentary from Las Vegas Sands on potential U.S. expansion and Texas legalization, and broader signals about consumer demand across regions.

Several states will publish June sports-betting revenue this week. New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania have already released figures; Michigan and Massachusetts are expected to follow. Published metrics will include handle, revenue growth, operator hold and changes in market share, along with measures of how the World Cup influenced activity.

Other developments to monitor include tax and integrity matters. The IRS held a public hearing on implementing a new 90% cap on deducting gambling losses, with testimony from lawmakers, tax professionals, professional players and industry representatives. The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board is reviewing a promotional video featuring Bryce Harper after Harper stated he did not authorize use of his likeness. Arizona Cardinals director of college scouting Ryan Gold is appealing an indefinite NFL suspension tied to alleged violations of the league’s gambling policy.

Multiple hearings, court filings, platform launches and corporate earnings are scheduled in the coming days, with decisions and disclosures expected to add regulatory and commercial detail to the prediction-market segment and the wider gambling industry.