March prediction market volume up 1,107% year over year

Prediction market transactions surpassed 192 million in March 2026, a monthly record, as the number of users climbed to 865,411 and notional trading volume reached about $23.89 billion. During the month, lawmakers introduced bills aimed at limiting insider trading and prohibiting contracts tied to armed conflicts.

Data compiled on Dune show March’s notional volume was up about 1,107% from a year earlier, while remaining roughly 10.7% below January’s all-time high of $26.7 billion. The user count set a record and rose about 118% from 396,642 in March 2025.

Activity remains concentrated in a few categories. On Polymarket, sports, crypto and politics have led weekly volume in recent weeks, based on Dune tracking. On Kalshi, the exotics category overtook politics in late February and has stayed among the top three by weekly volume since then.

User behavior shows smaller trade sizes paired with frequent activity. On Polymarket, more than 57% of users placed less than $100 per position, and the average active participant executed about 25 trades per day, according to platform-level metrics captured on Dune.

In March, several legislative proposals addressed event-based trading, including measures to curb insider trading and to bar markets linked to wars. The measures add to ongoing regulatory scrutiny of event contracts and how they are listed and marketed to retail customers.

Prediction markets let participants trade contracts tied to outcomes of future events across sports, digital assets and politics. Notional volume reflects the total dollar value of contracts traded and is used to gauge market activity.