Prediction market hearings, World Cup surge shape gambling week

Two prediction market court hearings on July 10 coincide with record U.S. World Cup television audiences that have increased sportsbook betting and trading on event-focused markets.

In King County Superior Court, Washington state will seek a preliminary injunction to bar Kalshi from offering contracts tied to sports events to residents in the state. Kalshi’s case was remanded from federal court to state court after the company failed to keep the dispute in federal jurisdiction. Kalshi has a separate appeal pending in the Ninth Circuit.

Also on July 10, a Ninth Circuit panel will hear an appeal brought by Blue Lake Rancheria, Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians, and the Picayune Rancheria of Chukchansi Indians. The tribes argue Kalshi’s sports contracts violate tribal gaming rights and state gambling restrictions. A federal district court previously dismissed the tribes’ claims, finding the Commodity Exchange Act preempted their state-law and Indian Gaming Regulatory Act arguments. The Ninth Circuit denied the tribes’ request to assign the appeal to the panel handling a consolidated Nevada case.

Other legal deadlines this week include a July 8 reply deadline in CFTC v. Connecticut. Connecticut filed a motion to dismiss on June 3 and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a response in June. The Tennessee appeal, consolidated with an Ohio case in the Sixth Circuit, has a July 8 filing deadline for Tennessee’s reply; Tennessee filed its opening brief in May and Kalshi filed a response in June. Oral argument in the Tennessee-Ohio consolidated appeal is scheduled for July 30.

North Carolina’s proposed state budget includes a 6% tax on prediction market operators’ net trading fee revenue attributable to transactions conducted within the state. Governor Josh Stein has until July 12 to sign, veto, or allow the budget to become law without his signature.

At the federal level, lawmakers have introduced multiple bills addressing prediction markets. The No Profiting from Public Service Act would bar federal officials and candidates from participating in prediction market contracts tied to government and politics. Other pending proposals would establish regulatory frameworks, set consumer protections, ban specific event contracts, or restrict trading by certain officials.

The U.S. Men’s National Team’s knockout win over Bosnia and Herzegovina attracted a record 33 million U.S. viewers. The U.S. played Belgium on July 6 for a place in the quarterfinals. Prediction market and sportsbook activity tied to the World Cup has risen: Kalshi’s World Cup markets have exceeded $1 billion in volume and Polymarket reports more than $4 billion traded globally on tournament outcomes. An investment bank forecasted the World Cup would become the largest betting event in history.

Sweepstakes casino rules at the state level have led some operators to restrict service or exit markets. Indiana’s ban on certain sweepstakes platforms took effect July 1, and several operators limited promotional play or left the state. Maine’s ban takes effect July 15; operators are adjusting access, account policies, or redemption rules ahead of that deadline.

Commercial casino activity over the Fourth of July holiday provided early data on summer demand. Las Vegas visitation is up about 2% year-to-date compared with last year. Atlantic City reported revenue increases in every month of 2026 except February and recorded its strongest summer performance in 2025 in the most recent multi-year comparison.

Key near-term dates are July 8 for reply briefs in Connecticut and Tennessee, July 10 for the Washington state injunction hearing and Ninth Circuit tribal appeal, July 12 for North Carolina’s budget deadline, and July 30 for the consolidated Sixth Circuit oral argument. Regulators and market operators will publish betting and trading figures as the World Cup knockout rounds continue.