Polymarket World Cup trades top $3.3B; $1.6B on longshots

Polymarket’s World Cup-linked contracts have recorded more than $3.3 billion in trading volume, with roughly $1.6 billion placed on teams that the market prices at 1% chance or less.

On Polymarket’s winner market, France is priced at about a 23% chance to win the 2026 World Cup and Argentina at about 21%. Spain sits near 11%, England near 10% and Brazil near 6%. In the market for teams to reach the final, France has an implied 39% chance, Argentina 38% and Spain 23%.

Trading around frontrunners has concentrated in a few teams. Argentina has attracted about $81 million in winner-market trades, France about $77 million, Portugal roughly $76 million, Spain about $68 million and England about $61 million.

At the same time, teams priced at 1% or less account for about $1.6 billion of trading on the winner market, roughly two-thirds of that market’s volume. Ivory Coast has drawn about $101 million, Mexico about $97 million, Egypt about $90 million, Cape Verde about $87 million and Morocco about $82 million.

High historical volume on an outcome does not necessarily reflect current belief that the outcome is likely. Trades made earlier in the tournament can remain open, and some positions represent speculation, hedges or tickets that traders have not closed.

Prediction-market contracts remain open until settlement or until users close their positions, unlike sportsbook lines that are reset by a house. A combined position on France, Argentina, Spain, England and Portugal costs about $0.72 at current prices and would pay $1 if any of those teams wins.

Analysts at Bernstein estimate World Cup-related trading could exceed $10 billion by the tournament’s end on July 19. Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz reports non-sports trading reached about $3.6 billion across Kalshi and Polymarket combined, and that weekly volumes across the prediction-market ecosystem recently hit $14.5 billion with open interest near $1.6 billion.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened an inquiry into Polymarket. The platform paused U.S. operations after a 2022 enforcement action and resumed limited service last year. State regulators and consumer advocates have raised questions about how prediction markets operate and how users are protected.

Other platforms, including Kalshi, are also reporting heavy activity tied to match results, tournament outcomes and related soccer contracts. Public market records reflect where traders entered, which bets have become stale and where liquidity has not unwound.