Almost all Polymarket traders can’t quit their jobs

Researchers who reviewed multiyear transaction-level data on Polymarket found that 99.99% of trader accounts do not generate enough realized profit to replace a full-time salary. The study identified a very small group of accounts that accounted for most of the platform’s cumulative profits, roughly one in 10,000 accounts.

The analysis measured realized gains and losses for each active account, excluded inactive wallets, and adjusted results for trading fees and resolved market outcomes. The median account showed either a small loss or gains that, when annualized, amounted to a few hundred dollars. The distribution of returns was highly skewed: the top 0.01% of traders captured the bulk of aggregate profits, while the bottom 90% of active accounts posted negligible or negative net results.

Typical accounts held small position sizes, which limited absolute dollar gains even when percentage returns were positive. Polymarket is a prediction market where users buy and sell shares that pay out based on event outcomes, such as elections or economic indicators. Many users place small, infrequent bets for information or entertainment, liquidity in some markets is low, and prices can move quickly when news arrives.

The report highlighted several factors that reduce net take-home amounts: trading fees and slippage cut into gross returns, realized profits are subject to taxes, and many participants accept volatile short-term results as part of speculative activity. Settlement and payouts occur after event resolution, creating concentrated windows for earnings; traders who win on single events can realize large profits, but such outcomes were rare and often offset by losses elsewhere.

The review separated casual users from more active strategy accounts by trade frequency and holding periods. Casual users, who made occasional bets and often closed positions quickly, largely produced supplemental or net-zero returns. More active accounts showed wider variance: some produced meaningful short-term gains, and a smaller subset sustained returns across multiple market cycles.

“Consistent, large-scale profit is the exception, not the rule,” an analyst who examined the dataset wrote. A Polymarket spokesperson, responding to requests for comment, noted that the platform is intended to aggregate information and provide a marketplace for opinion expression and that outcomes vary by strategy, capital and risk tolerance.

The review observed similar return concentration in other prediction markets that trade binary or categorical outcomes, where forecasting accuracy and capital allocation determine profit and a high number of small retail participants produce a long tail of small or negative returns for most users.