Phemex, HTX launch USDT prediction markets amid scrutiny

Phemex and HTX on April 24, 2026 launched prediction market features that let users place wagers on whether specific real-world events will occur. Phemex’s markets cover world events, sports and cryptocurrencies and use USDT for all transactions on the platform. HTX opened a single event tied to U.S.-Iran negotiations and structured trades with multiple tokens.

Phemex, which reports more than 10 million users, tied prediction trades to standard exchange accounts. The exchange began a four-week “Prediction Championship” running April 23 through May 20, 2026, with user rankings based on forecasting performance. Federico Variola, Phemex’s chief executive, described the new feature this way: “Prediction markets represent an important evolution in market structure. They transform information and collective expectations into tradable signals. Bringing this category onto Phemex is part of our broader strategy to build a more complete trading ecosystem around how markets actually function today.” All Phemex transactions in the prediction markets settle in USDT.

HTX launched a more focused contest that runs April 24 to April 30, 2026, asking whether ongoing talks between the United States and Iran will produce a deal. The event began with an 8,000 USDT prize pool that grows as trading fees accrue. HTX structured the contest so users who bet a deal will occur trade in Bitcoin or Ethereum, while those betting against a deal use XAUT, a gold-backed token.

The new products follow a pattern seen on decentralized prediction platforms. One recent decentralized market allowed traders to forecast the scale of layoffs at a major technology company; odds for a specific outcome rose from 77% to 85% in five days and the event attracted about $112,000 in bets before the company announced layoffs. Decentralized platforms run protocols that aggregate many independent users’ bets without a central intermediary. By contrast, Phemex and HTX have added prediction features inside their centralized exchange platforms and integrate bets with users’ regular accounts.

Regulatory authorities have begun to challenge event-based wagering. Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a complaint that names several operators, including Kalshi, Coinbase, Polymarket, Robinhood and Crypto.com, and labels some of their offerings unlicensed gambling operations. The complaint states: “Masking illegal activity with flimsy pretenses does not make it legal.” The filing raises questions about whether the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has jurisdiction over these products or whether states may treat them as gambling and pursue licensing or enforcement actions.

Market participants and regulators are monitoring how widely centralized exchanges will be used for event-based wagering and whether those offerings attract broader retail participation. Exchanges have positioned prediction markets as a way to add trading options tied to news and events while legal and regulatory outcomes remain unsettled.