Kalshi keeps Trump-speech markets open after aide placed on leave

Kalshi continued to offer markets on whether President Trump would say specific words during speeches even after Gabriel Perez, a White House teleprompter aide, was placed on unpaid leave while under investigation for trading on the exchange.

Investigators identified purchases of contracts tied to multiple Trump speeches between December and March. The probe found more than $100,000 in trades linked to Perez. A July 2025 White House report to Congress lists Perez’s annual salary at $175,000 in his role as a deputy assistant and technical advisor. Perez is reported to be negotiating a possible settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

In a post on X, Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert J. Denault, wrote that the company “promptly flagged, investigated, and referred” the activity to the CFTC and has provided evidence to regulators. Kalshi says it uses pattern-recognition tools to screen trades, examining factors such as trade timing and abnormal win rates. Accounts flagged for suspicious activity are frozen while compliance and legal staff investigate. The platform states confirmed violations can result in disgorgement, fines, multi-year suspensions or permanent bans.

It is not clear when Kalshi froze the account or when the referral to regulators was made; investigators reported the purchases occurred over several months. The CFTC oversees prediction markets and allows exchanges to self-certify the events they list, but requires firms to ensure contracts comply with federal rules, including prohibitions on insider trading.

Craig Holman of Public Citizen urged the CFTC to increase enforcement of insider-trading laws and described the current oversight as lax. Lawmakers and watchdog groups have questioned whether prediction-market operators are preventing insiders from profiting.

Kalshi launched its online prediction market about five years ago and later expanded its political offerings after winning the right to list election-related contracts. The company broadened into sporting-event contracts after January 2025, around the time it named Donald Trump Jr. a strategic advisor and granted him equity. In May, Kalshi reported raising $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation after earlier valuations below $2 billion.

Several states have sued to block Kalshi from offering contracts they characterize as unlicensed gambling tied to sports. Kalshi and the CFTC have challenged those state suits in federal court, and several appeals are pending. CFTC Chair Michael Selig has supported allowing regulated exchanges to list sporting-event contracts.

Kalshi did not immediately respond to requests for details on the timing of its internal actions. The CFTC’s probe and any potential settlement with Perez are ongoing.