Joe Asher on curbing sharps and rise of prediction markets

Joe Asher, a sportsbook veteran, outlined in a recent Q&A that operators must balance limiting sharp bettors with preserving long-term betting handle. He explained why sportsbooks sometimes restrict professional bettors and how those actions affect turnover and margins.

He described methods operators use to control sharp exposure, including lowering maximum stakes on specific markets, moving lines more aggressively, restricting account features and, in some cases, closing accounts. These measures reduce immediate liability for a book.

He warned such measures can weaken price discovery. Without informed bettors helping calibrate odds, operators may widen margins or accept larger residual risk on certain lines.

Asher described prediction markets as platforms where users buy and sell shares that settle on an event outcome, with prices that update continuously and display implied probabilities in real time. He noted these platforms may attract bettors who currently use traditional sportsbooks, especially for political and event-driven wagers.

He outlined two possible effects on overall handle. Prediction markets may draw traders and information-focused bettors, adding new money to the broader betting ecosystem. At the same time, some activity may shift away from established sportsbooks if bettors prefer the trading-style mechanics and transparency of prediction platforms.

On customer strategy, Asher recommended operators consider customer lifetime value. Rather than blanket restrictions, books can use targeted approaches such as adjusting prices to discourage exploitative stakes while keeping accounts open for other wagering opportunities. Advances in technology and data analytics give operators more options for segmenting customers and managing risk without wholesale exclusion.

On regulation and market integrity, Asher noted that alternative markets will face scrutiny over liquidity, manipulation risks and settlement procedures that align with event governing rules. Those factors could affect how quickly prediction markets expand within regulated frameworks.

Asher discussed these trade-offs between protecting short-term profits and maintaining market functions that help set accurate odds.