Galaxy Digital: CLARITY Act odds cut to 30%, four days left

Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act’s passage this year to 30%, saying lawmakers need an agreement by July 30 to allow time for floor proceedings before the Senate’s August recess. The firm had put the odds at about 50% in a July 24 client note.

The update followed the release of a 616-page combined draft from Senate Republicans that merges provisions from the Banking and Agriculture committees. The text adds an ethics package restricting senior federal officials from issuing or sponsoring cryptocurrencies, expands tools to address fraud and illicit finance, tightens Commodity Futures Trading Commission registration and custody rules, and adjusts stablecoin oversight under the GENIUS Act.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, described the CLARITY Act as “a strong bill that improves regulation, protects investors and promotes innovation,” and urged negotiators to make a final push to reach a deal.

Seven senators who took part in negotiations — Mark Warner, Angela Alsobrooks, Cory Booker, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ruben Gallego, John Hickenlooper and Raphael Warnock — said the current draft “falls short” and requested stronger protections on government ethics, consumer safeguards, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity. Their response affects the vote math: Republicans control 53 seats but 60 votes are needed to overcome a filibuster.

Galaxy’s analysis expects Republican senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to oppose the measure and notes that Mitch McConnell has not voted since a June hospitalization. Based on public statements and reporting, Galaxy estimated the bill may begin with roughly 50 dependable Republican votes, leaving Democratic negotiators central to any path to 60 votes.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters he did not expect all pending legislation to finish before the August break but left open the possibility of starting CLARITY on the floor. “I would like to at least get Clarity started. We’ll see where the votes are,” he added.

Lobbying activity has increased as the calendar shrinks. The Digital Chamber, Crypto Council for Innovation and the Blockchain Association sent a joint letter asking Senate leaders to prioritize floor consideration while bipartisan talks continue. The groups wrote that the revised bill strengthens tools to combat illicit finance and creates broader federal consumer safeguards for digital-asset markets.

Support has also grown outside the crypto industry. The National Fraternal Order of Police backed the revised text after revisions addressed concerns about how developer protections might affect criminal investigations. FOP President Patrick Yoes said the changes preserved authorities needed to investigate financial crimes involving digital assets and highlighted provisions on state and local enforcement, anti-money-laundering and sanctions compliance, fraud at crypto kiosks and seizure of illicit assets.

The National Black Church Initiative urged quick passage, with NBCI President Rev. Anthony Evans warning that the Black Church cannot be late to the future of finance and that communities should not enter it unprotected.

Some policy experts have pressed for a floor vote. Jake Chervinsky, chief executive at the Hyperliquid Policy Center, argued the compromises in the bill remove major objections and called for senators who portray themselves as pro-crypto to take a public position.

Galaxy noted leadership effectively needs an agreement by July 30 to allow time for cloture filings, procedural votes, debate, amendment consideration and final passage. Delaying the effort until September would place the legislation on a busier fall calendar focused on government funding and election-year business.