DraftKings posts $3.1B prediction run rate, trails Kalshi

DraftKings reported on June 9 that its Predictions product reached a $3.1 billion annualized total trading run rate in May, which equates to roughly $258 million in actual volume for the month. The company also said annualized consumer volume in May was $1.3 billion, a 24% month-over-month increase. DraftKings launched Predictions in December 2025 and disclosed the figures in a Form 8-K. Shares rose about 10% in early trading after the disclosure.

Kalshi reported $17.91 billion of trading volume in May, and Polymarket reported $7.08 billion for the month. Combined monthly trading on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026. Measurement methods vary by platform: some report dollars traded while others report the number of contracts traded, which can make cross-platform comparisons imprecise.

Sports-related contracts account for a large share of activity on the major platforms. Sports represent about 80% of Kalshi’s volume. Since mid-2024, sports, politics and crypto have made up roughly 90–91% of activity on Kalshi and Polymarket. DraftKings released its figures days into the 2026 World Cup and shortly after the NBA Finals; internal estimates shared by the company have suggested World Cup-related prediction activity could reach as much as $2.5 billion.

Event contracts are treated as derivatives overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which issues federal licenses that allow platforms to operate across state lines. Using that regulatory path, DraftKings launched Predictions in 38 states, including several where online sports betting remains illegal.

Federal and state courts have issued differing rulings on whether event contracts fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction. An appeals court ruled on April 6 that Kalshi’s sports contracts likely fall under federal jurisdiction, while a separate appeals court hearing Nevada’s case appeared to lean the opposite way. Market prices indicate about a 64% chance the Supreme Court will take up the split by year-end.

Enforcement actions and litigation have increased. In April the CFTC sued Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois to block state enforcement against Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi faces more than a dozen federal lawsuits, and some state courts have ruled in favor of state regulators, including decisions in Maryland and Massachusetts. Former CFTC chairman Gary Gensler filed an amicus brief on June 11 arguing that sports bets are not swaps and that Congress did not intend the agency to be a national sports-betting regulator; that brief was filed alongside the American Gaming Association and several tribal and consumer groups. In a separate Massachusetts case, 38 state attorneys general have sided with the state. The American Gaming Association has argued that DraftKings’ product constitutes illegal gambling. DraftKings and FanDuel left the AGA in November 2025.

Trading volume does not equal fee revenue. Prediction platforms typically collect small fees per contract. The sector generated about $31 million in fees in April; Polymarket accounted for $29 million of that sum. DraftKings has not disclosed how much fee revenue its Predictions business produces.

DraftKings has increased its estimate of the addressable market for predictions to between $55 billion and $80 billion. In investor materials, the company said it intends to pursue a leadership position in sports prediction markets before year-end. The longer-term distribution of trading liquidity across sportsbook operators and prediction-native platforms remains subject to upcoming legal rulings and to how volume and fee revenues develop on each platform.