Crypto coalition urges CLARITY vote; markets cut August odds

More than 200 crypto firms and trade groups sent a June 7 letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer asking them to bring the CLARITY Act to the full Senate for a vote. The letter, led by Stand With Crypto, the Blockchain Association, the Crypto Council for Innovation and The Digital Chamber, said a federal framework is needed to keep digital-asset activity in the United States and to protect consumers.

The coalition’s appeal came about three weeks after the Senate Banking Committee advanced a substitute CLARITY text on May 14 by a 15-9 bipartisan vote. Senate leadership has not set a timetable for floor consideration.

Senators backing the bill reiterated support publicly. Sen. Cynthia Lummis posted that the bill “passed committee” and that “the floor is next,” adding supporters did not travel this far “to quit at the 5-yard line.” Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott posted June 8 that CLARITY “takes the side of everyday Americans” and would make digital-asset markets “safer, fairer, and more transparent.” Several industry groups that signed the letter urged floor scheduling “as soon as possible.”

Consumer and public-interest groups sent a June 4 letter urging leaders to oppose the Senate package. The letter cited what its signatories described as weak Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money-laundering rules, insufficient ethics provisions, and a potential stablecoin-yield loophole. Those concerns align with objections raised by some Democrats and moderate Republicans during committee deliberations.

Legal and procedural questions remain. Analysis by the law firm Davis Wright Tremaine indicates the Senate Banking Committee’s substitute text must be reconciled with a separate bill from the Senate Agriculture Committee, the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, before the full Senate can vote. Any Senate-passed text would then need reconciliation with the House-passed CLARITY Act.

Prediction markets moved after the letters and committee action. Polymarket’s contract on CLARITY becoming law in 2026 fell from 62% on June 3 to 51% on June 8. Kalshi’s implied probability that a crypto market-structure law passes before August dropped from 39.7% to 22.1% over the same period, while its contract on passage before 2027 moved slightly from 52.1% to 51.5%. Some institutional forecasters also trimmed short-term odds, including one analyst who reduced a 2026 estimate from 75% to 60% and another bank that put the chance below 50%.

Traders and analysts identified three main obstacles: finding floor time before a Senate recess, resolving disputes over anti-money-laundering, ethics and stablecoin language without losing bipartisan support, and calendar competition from budget, national security and reconciliation priorities in an election year.

The coalition highlighted a non-U.S. regulatory deadline as part of its timing argument. The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets transitional period ends July 1, after which firms without a MiCA license must stop serving EU clients.

The June 7 letter is the most broadly coordinated industry push for a floor vote since the Banking Committee approved the bill in May. The Senate has not announced a schedule for floor consideration, and legislative and policy differences among lawmakers remain unresolved.