CLARITY Act odds fall to 50% after Trump ties housing bill

Galaxy Digital reduced its estimate that the CLARITY Act will pass this year to 50% from 60%, citing a tighter Senate calendar after President Donald Trump tied a bipartisan housing bill to the SAVE Act. A prediction market on Polymarket currently prices the chance of passage at about 44%.

The CLARITY Act must produce a single Senate text reconciling versions from the Banking and Agriculture committees, secure formal floor debate time, survive a likely amendment process and then win final approval in the House. Galaxy Digital said scheduling constraints, rather than a collapse in negotiations, drove the downgrade. Senate leaders would likely need to schedule debate by the first week of July to hold a final vote before the traditional August recess; otherwise consideration would probably slip to September.

The calendar tightened after the president publicly refused to sign the bipartisan housing bill unless the SAVE Act also passes. The SAVE Act would require documentary proof of U.S. citizenship for voter registration and introduce new photo ID requirements for federal ballots. The measure passed the House but lacks the 60 votes needed to clear a Senate filibuster. Lawmakers and aides say the linkage has consumed floor time and leadership attention that could have gone to other legislation, including the CLARITY Act.

Policy disputes within the CLARITY package remain unresolved. Some Democratic senators want stronger ethics rules, tougher conflict-of-interest provisions and tighter anti-money-laundering standards. Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized the current text, stating, “Our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions. The CLARITY Act, as it’s currently written, would make this problem worse. Congress should be strengthening illicit finance standards, not creating new loopholes.” An amendment from Senator Chris Van Hollen to tighten conflict-of-interest rules failed in committee. Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker have urged enforceable ethics provisions in any final deal.

Law enforcement and some lawmakers have raised concerns about developer protections in the attached Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. The BRCA language is designed to prevent open-source developers and infrastructure providers from being treated as financial intermediaries when they do not control customer funds. Supporters say those protections avoid penalizing developers for activity they cannot direct; critics warn the carve-outs could limit enforcement against money laundering, sanctions evasion and other illicit finance.

Those policy fights could affect vote counts. Some Republicans oppose the broader federal framework or specific rules, leaving supporters dependent on a solid bloc of Democrats to reach 60 votes for cloture. Any defections late in the process would increase the risk that the bill cannot clear the Senate before leaders shift to campaign-related business.

Crypto firms and trade groups have stepped up lobbying to keep the bill on the calendar. A payments company ran a mobile advertising campaign in Washington calling its vehicle the “Clarity Truck” to press lawmakers. Senator Cynthia Lummis and other backers have warned that, without U.S. legislation, firms may move activity to jurisdictions such as Europe, the U.K. and the United Arab Emirates that have advanced digital-asset rules.

Market participants are watching closely. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week, more than 50% down from its October peak near $125,000. Analysts at asset managers have described regulatory progress as one variable that could affect investor sentiment: in a baseline scenario where the CLARITY Act clears the Senate and other conditions stabilize, markets could recover; in a downside scenario where the bill fails, digital-asset firms continue to deleverage and macro conditions tighten, prices could face further pressure.

Galaxy Digital and other market observers say July may be the last realistic window for Senate action this year. If floor time is not secured before the August recess, consideration will likely move to September, when attention normally shifts toward the 2026 campaign and complex legislation typically encounters a harder path to a vote.