Buyers and long-term holders sell as Bitcoin stalls under $70k

Bitcoin briefly rose above $65,000 on Wednesday before retreating below $63,000 by press time. Softer U.S. inflation data preceded the rebound and traders from multiple cohorts sold as prices climbed.

On-chain analytics show coins from long-term holders and investors who bought near June lows were moved to exchanges during the rally. Coins aged 18 months to two years have a moving cost basis near $80,800, reflecting the average price at which that cohort last transacted. Realized-loss volume among long-term holders increased as Bitcoin approached $66,000.

A data provider wrote, “Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses,” a reading consistent with prior periods when that cohort supplied the market.

Short-term holders also sold into the recovery. Investors who accumulated near the June lows began taking profits at volumes similar to levels recorded around the market’s May peak. Combined selling from recent buyers and older holders coincided with Bitcoin trading below the short-term holder break-even level near $69,000.

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded three consecutive sessions of net inflows during the rebound: $181.1 million on Tuesday, $107.7 million on Wednesday and $79 million on Thursday, totaling $367.8 million. Those inflows offset roughly 87% of a $424 million withdrawal recorded on Monday, leaving the week with a net outflow of about $56 million. Over the past 30 days, the two largest U.S. spot funds averaged more than 1,250 BTC of net outflows per day and trading activity across ETFs has declined.

A market regime indicator used by analysts rose to 34.7 from -42.9 on June 26, and model confidence increased to 79.4% from 54.9% over the prior 24 hours. The indicator’s seven-day average stood at 64.3%, compared with 57.3% for the full month.

Options open interest shows heavy call concentrations above the market: about $1.6 billion at $70,000, $1 billion at $72,000, $686 million at $75,000 and $1.2 billion at $80,000, totaling roughly $4.5 billion. Put open interest includes about $1 billion at $60,000 and $840 million at $50,000. Those strike levels form a dense corridor of options exposure above the current price while large put positions sit below the market.

Open interest figures do not identify which side of each contract is directional, but they mark price levels with concentrated options activity. The $60,000 strike combines a large put open interest with prior buying interest and is a notable reference point if price action turns lower.