Bitcoin trades as Hormuz closures pinch 20% of oil

Bitcoin traded near $62,900 across the weekend while tanker crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and Iranian missile and drone strikes. The waterway normally carries about 20.9 million barrels per day, roughly one-fifth of global petroleum consumption.

The U.S. carried out about 140 strikes on Iranian military targets on July 11. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan and struck two UAE-flagged supertankers in Omani waters, killing one crew member. Washington reinstated a naval blockade on July 12 and proposed a charge on cargo to recover security costs. Iranian officials said normal traffic would resume only if U.S. military intervention stopped.

Brent crude settled at $85.97 on July 17, up about 2% on the day and about 24% higher than a year earlier. West Texas Intermediate rose to $80.93. Shipping disruptions and higher freight and insurance costs affect the expected supply path for oil and can push prices higher before any confirmed physical shortage.

The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17. The updated projections showed a median year-end 2026 rate of 3.8% and more officials projecting additional hikes. Headline consumer prices were running near 4.2% at the last report. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for July 28–29. Kevin Warsh warned that ‘political pressure on monetary policy is a live variable.’

Because U.S. and European markets close for the weekend while Bitcoin trades 24/7, traders used the cryptocurrency to reflect developments in the Gulf before oil futures, Treasury and equity markets reopened. Weekend order books were thinner, spreads wider and fewer market makers were active, making prices more sensitive to large orders and leveraged positions. Perpetual futures funding rates showed rapid swings as directional bets accumulated.

Market participants identified specific events that would likely shift prices when traditional markets reopen: a verified tanker attack with casualties, a major insurer suspending Strait of Hormuz coverage, a U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, or an Iranian missile striking a populated Gulf capital. Any of those would be expected to push Brent higher at the open, increase demand for dollars and Treasuries, and put downward pressure on risk assets.

Bitcoin has declined about 38% from its October 2025 peak of $126,198. It hit an intraday low near $61,794 on July 14, recovered to roughly $63,900 by early Saturday and then traded flat through the European morning. When oil futures and Treasury trading resume Sunday evening and Monday, participants will compare weekend cryptocurrency moves with traditional market openings to determine whether the weekend pricing reflected immediate geopolitical developments or liquidity and positioning effects.