Bitcoin tops $66K; prior ‘bottom’ buyers sit 20% underwater

Bitcoin climbed from a June 30 low near $58,500 to trade around $66,000 as of the latest data. Traders who bought between April 13 and May 23 had an average entry price of about $77,900, putting those positions roughly 20% below their purchase price based on VanEck’s July data cutoff.

Options markets show higher costs for downside protection. One-month put implied volatility is about 46.9%, while one-month call implied volatility is near 35.5%, producing an 11.4 percentage-point put-call skew. VanEck’s ChainCheck places that skew near the 83rd percentile of readings since 2021. The skew widened from 9.8 percentage points to 11.4 over the past month.

Perpetual futures funding rates moved from negative through most of the spring to positive this month. The 30-day annualized funding rate is near 4.5%, below Bitcoin’s long-run average funding level. Funding’s recent turn positive reflects renewed demand for leveraged long exposure, though positioning remains lighter than levels seen before earlier selloffs.

Spot-market activity remained subdued. Average daily spot volume over the past month was about $5.1 billion, below its longer-term average. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products shed roughly 40,010 BTC over the past 30 days, while early July flows were only slightly positive.

The Federal Reserve holds a policy meeting July 28–29. A poll of economists conducted July 17–21 showed unanimous expectation that the Fed would hold its policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75%. Market participants are focused on the policy statement and the post-meeting press conference for potential guidance.

VanEck’s historical analysis links skew bands to subsequent returns. Readings between 10 and 15 percentage points have produced a median 30-day return of +1.4%, a 90-day return of −8.8%, a 180-day return of +15.3% and a 365-day return of −19.1% in its dataset. Readings above 15 percentage points have in past cycles preceded stronger results over the 90-, 180- and 365-day windows.

VanEck sets out several possible market paths tied to these signals. In one scenario, skew compresses toward lower levels and funding stays moderate while spot demand strengthens. In another, skew remains in the 10–15 percentage-point band with funding lightly positive and price range-bound. A further scenario describes skew widening past 15 points, funding turning negative and the June low near $58,500 being retested.

Price has risen from late-June lows, while options skew, funding and ETP flows indicate the differing positions held across the market as of the latest data.