Bitcoin stalls near $64k as $2.5bn call spread nears expiry

Bitcoin traded just below $64,000 after two weekly options expiries failed to move the price materially. A concentrated call spread that pays if Bitcoin finishes above $70,000 but stops paying once it clears $72,000 is set to expire on July 31 with about $2.5 billion in gross notional across its two legs.

About 19,000 Bitcoin options, with a notional value near $1.2 billion, settled on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday. The exchange’s calculated max-pain level for that expiry was $64,500; Bitcoin closed the day at $64,140. The previous week’s expiry carried a max-pain level of $63,000, while price moved higher afterward. These outcomes show price did not settle at the max-pain strikes for either expiry.

Max pain is the strike price that would create the smallest payout for option sellers at settlement. The figure is based on open contracts at each strike and does not force market prices to reach that level. Reported notional values are the face value of the underlying Bitcoin referenced by contracts; the cash actually at risk is a smaller portion of that total.

Trading data around the expiries pointed to selling pressure. Exchange-wide metrics tracked more sellers crossing the spread on Thursday and Friday. The Coinbase premium moved to a 0.088% discount on Friday, its widest since mid-July. Liquidations removed $45.9 million from leveraged long positions on Friday and $7.4 million from shorts. Funding rates averaged 0.0038% across exchanges on Friday, down from 0.0064% five days earlier. Open interest across futures and perpetual contracts finished at $22.35 billion, slightly above the prior expiry’s $21.26 billion even as price slipped 1.5%.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $225.2 million of outflows on Thursday, with BlackRock’s IBIT responsible for $202.5 million of that reversal; the week still ended with net inflows near $274 million. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 28 and implied volatility moved toward the mid-30s.

Deribit shows nearly $5 billion of open interest split between the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes for the July 31 monthly expiry, about 18% of the exchange’s roughly $28 billion Bitcoin options book. One large block trade bought 20,000 calls at $70,000 and sold 20,000 calls at $72,000, creating a spread that pays if Bitcoin finishes above $70,000 but caps gains above $72,000. The two legs’ gross notional amounts to about $2.5 billion.

Institutional liquidity providers connected demand for those July calls to expectations that the CLARITY Act could pass; market participants have reduced those expectations as legislative prospects changed. The July 31 expiry comes two days after the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting. The FOMC meets on July 28 and 29, with the policy statement and a press event scheduled following the meeting. Futures markets assign roughly a one-in-three chance to a quarter-point rate increase at that meeting.

For the spread to finish in the money, Bitcoin must rise roughly 9% from current levels in about six trading days. Deribit’s probabilities put the odds of Bitcoin touching $70,000 during July at about 14.5% and touching $72,000 at roughly 4.1%. Gamma exposure among options concentrates near $65,000 and $72,000; the nearer cluster is small and close to the market, while the larger cluster sits farther away.

Two weekly expiries this month settled without producing a clear directional effect. With spot liquidity thin, short-term price action will reflect new buying or selling in the cash market rather than options settlements alone.