Bitcoin rally hinges on whether Fed accepts weak payrolls

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, below the 110,000 estimate. April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% and average hourly earnings were up 3.5% year over year. Labor-force participation declined by 0.3 percentage point to 61.5%.

After the report, futures markets increased the probability of earlier rate cuts. Bitcoin moved back above $60,000, trading in the $60,000-$61,000 range and reaching an intraday high of $62,056. The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting, and officials’ dot-plot projections remain at or above that range.

Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo, described the payroll miss as a ‘trap’ in a client note and argued that a 4.2% unemployment rate gives the Fed cover to treat a single weak print as noise. He pointed to elevated real yields and said thin holiday liquidity can amplify short-term swings, while delta-neutral positions in crypto are less dependent on a clear dovish pivot.

Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said a softer jobs print eases near-term pressure to hike but does not automatically produce a sustained rally. He outlined two scenarios: a modest, orderly slowdown that supports risk assets as rate-cut odds rise, and a deeper deterioration that could hurt markets even if cuts become more likely. Dori also mentioned other liquidity factors, including Treasury cash balances, easing of capital rules and stablecoin flows.

From a technical perspective, Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said Bitcoin priced some of the jobs weakness before the release, retracing to near $57,000 before breaking through $60,000-$61,000. He named $65,000 as the next confirmation level, and noted that a sustained break above that could open a path toward $75,000 in July and toward $100,000 by year-end if the technical, seasonal and macro conditions persist.

Analysts describe two main paths forward: an orderly slowdown that allows Bitcoin to hold the $60,000-$61,000 zone and test higher levels, or a Fed pushback that keeps real yields elevated and pulls Bitcoin back toward the recent $57,000 low.

Market liquidity will be thinner through the July 4 holiday weekend. U.S. equity markets are closed on July 3 and CME shortens trading hours while crypto markets remain open. Traders will watch upcoming economic releases and any Fed comments for confirmation of whether the payroll report represents a lasting change or a temporary wobble.