Bitcoin Tests $69K as Fed Decision Looms

Bitcoin is trading around $65,978, below the $69,000 level Glassnode identifies as the average cost basis for short-term holders. Market participants are focused on the Federal Reserve’s July 29 policy decision for signs that could affect the cryptocurrency’s path.

On-chain data show accumulation has concentrated in wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, a range typical of funds and large trading desks. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted six consecutive positive sessions from July 14 through July 21, adding about $930.2 million and reversing a $424.7 million outflow recorded on July 13. At the same time, mid-sized holders were distributing again, exchange inflows dropped to multi-week lows, short positions were closed and downside hedging declined.

Recent U.S. macro readings have been mixed. June payrolls rose by 57,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, and revisions reduced April and May payrolls by a combined 74,000. Core consumer prices were flat month over month and slowed to 2.6% year over year, while headline CPI showed 3.5% annually. Market-implied odds for a July rate increase moved into roughly a 25%–33% range, with one CME-based reading at about 33.7%.

Energy and bond markets showed different pressure points. Brent crude futures settled near $94, with an intraday high close to $95.47. The three-month Brent timespread widened to about $9.26, the steepest backwardation since late May, indicating near-term physical tightness. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached about 4.67%, and the 30-year yield traded above 5% for 11 consecutive sessions.

Glassnode’s framework sets threshold values for risk-asset upside, flagging a 10-year yield ceiling near 4.45% and a dollar index ceiling near 99. The 10-year yield currently sits above that level and the dollar index reads about 101.14.

Scenarios heading into the Fed decision are contingent on policy signals, oil prices and yields. In one scenario, the Fed frames labor weakness as the primary risk, Brent cools toward the Energy Information Administration’s July forecast of $74 a barrel for the third quarter and the 10-year yield falls below 4.45%. In that case, ETF inflows could persist and accumulation could widen beyond large wallets, with a potential move through $69,000 toward an $84,000 range identified in on-chain analysis. In an alternative scenario, the Fed emphasizes the inflationary impact of elevated oil, Brent holds near current levels and long-term yields remain high; ETF flows could fade, exchange inflows could rise, and Bitcoin could retest a demand shelf near $63,000 where about 10% of supply resides.

The Energy Information Administration’s July outlook projects Brent averaging $74 in the third quarter and $65 in 2027. An international projection embedded in a separate forecast assumed a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an annual average oil price near $89. The outcome of the Fed’s July 29 decision will be a key event for traders watching whether large-wallet accumulation and ETF demand broaden or reverse, and whether on-chain indicators confirm a sustained return of institutional participation.