Bitcoin Decouples From AI Stocks as Brent Nears $96

Bitcoin’s daily correlation with the S&P 500 dropped to 0.12 in the second quarter from 0.58 in the fourth quarter of 2025, while its correlation with gold rose to 0.57 and with silver to 0.63, according to a report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode covering data through June 30. Correlation with the Nasdaq was 0.21 in Q2.

On-chain metrics in the report show coins that last moved within three months are at multi-year lows and dormant supply has increased. Analysts at Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode describe those patterns as appearing in accumulation phases after a correction.

The report notes the Federal Reserve meeting on July 28-29 and corporate earnings from Microsoft and Meta on July 29 and Amazon on July 30 fall inside the quarter. The authors say those events will interact with inflation and liquidity dynamics already in play.

The stronger link between Bitcoin and gold is presented as a response to real interest rates and market liquidity. The report records that both Bitcoin and gold fell in Q2 as a firmer dollar and expectations of a hawkish Fed weighed on prices.

Alphabet raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance on July 22 to $195 billion–$205 billion from $180 billion–$190 billion and reported a negative free-cash-flow quarter, with a $5.9 billion cash burn. The report states that Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are on pace to spend more than $700 billion this year on AI infrastructure, and that Morgan Stanley projects more than $1 trillion next year. The analysts write that if current spending continues the four companies could collectively spend more on capex than they generate in free cash flow by 2027.

The Fed’s Monetary Policy Report listed PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE at 3.4% for the 12 months through May. Policymakers have held the funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% since January. The June Summary of Economic Projections raised the 2026 median PCE forecast to 3.6% and the year-end funds-rate median to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s July 7 base case projected Brent at $74 per barrel for the third quarter. Brent traded near $96 on July 24 after a brief rise above $100. On July 24 the 10-year Treasury yield reached about 4.713% and the 30-year yield approached a 19-year high. Gold traded near $4,073 an ounce and silver near $58.77 on July 24.

The report outlines two scenarios for an AI-driven equity selloff. In a deflationary unwind, Treasury yields would fall, the dollar would weaken and capital could rotate to scarce assets, with Bitcoin rising alongside gold and silver while remaining detached from technology stocks. In an inflationary unwind, oil, tariffs and infrastructure demand would keep inflation persistent, pushing yields and the dollar higher and weighing on expensive tech names, metals and Bitcoin.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows through the first half of the year before flows stabilized in June. The funds posted seven straight days of net inflows through July 22 totaling nearly $1 billion, then saw $225 million of outflows on July 23. The report notes the short run of inflows points to stabilizing demand but says longer-term flows are needed to confirm a rotation from AI stocks into crypto.

The report states that a 0.57 correlation with gold reduces Bitcoin’s diversification benefit for portfolios that hold precious metals. The authors identify oil prices as a factor that may move yields and the dollar ahead of the Fed meeting.