Bitcoin at $74,500; triple RSI divergence may stall rally

Bitcoin is trading near $74,500 after a recovery of more than 15% from early April lows around $64,000. The price is testing a horizontal supply zone at $74,000-76,000 while touching the upper boundary of an ascending channel that began after a February low near $62,000. Immediate support sits at $64,000-66,000, which aligns with the channel’s lower boundary. A daily close above $76,000 with expanding volume would open a path toward the next resistance cluster at $85,000-87,000.

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has printed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since the March 27 low, with the prior $72,000 peak now acting as support. Momentum indicators show three consecutive episodes in which price made higher highs while the Relative Strength Index recorded lower highs, a pattern described as a triple bearish divergence. Trading volume declined during the advance. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile reached historically high readings, a pattern that has preceded volatility contractions and short-term pullbacks in past data.

Market participants outline two scenarios. In the bullish case, a decisive daily close above $76,000 accompanied by rising volume would negate the short-term divergence and make a move toward $85,000-87,000 possible; failure to hold $76,000 would invalidate that view. In the bearish case, rejection at current resistance could push price back to $72,000, with a deeper retest of $69,000-70,000 if $72,000 does not hold; a sustained close above $76,000 would negate the bearish scenario.

The overlap of the channel ceiling and the horizontal supply zone places the current price area as a decision point for traders. Market participants will monitor intraday volume and whether Bitcoin posts a clean daily close above or below the $74,000-76,000 range to assess the next directional move.