Bernstein: ETFs, treasuries reshape bitcoin; MSTR tops 761k BTC

Bernstein told clients Monday that exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries are reshaping bitcoin’s ownership base, and described Strategy as a ‘central bank of last resort’ as the company’s holdings moved past 761,000 BTC following 66,231 coins added this year.

The team led by Gautam Chhugani wrote that bitcoin held up during the recent Middle East conflict, outperforming gold and global equity indexes. By the firm’s tally, bitcoin rose about 7% last week, while ether gained roughly 9%.

Bernstein argued that growth in spot bitcoin ETFs and steady demand from large corporate treasury buyers has reduced reliance on short-term retail flows. The firm estimated spot ETFs took in about $2.1 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks. Despite year-to-date outflows of roughly $460 million, total spot ETF assets stand near $92 billion. ETFs now hold around 6.1% of the total bitcoin supply, based on the analysis.

The note highlighted longer-term holding trends. Coins dormant for more than a year account for roughly 60% of circulating supply. About 14% of all bitcoin is now held by institutional vehicles, including ETFs, corporate treasuries and governments, according to the estimates.

Strategy continued buying through recent volatility, with year-to-date purchases of 66,231 BTC at an average price close to $85,000, the note stated. Following an 8-K filed Monday, total holdings now exceed 761,000 BTC, valued near $56 billion in the report. Bernstein added that MicroStrategy’s balance sheet includes roughly $57 billion in bitcoin and liquid cash against about $17 billion in debt. The company has expanded financing linked to its bitcoin strategy, including preferred securities aimed at income-focused investors. One such security pays an 11.5% dividend and has seen weekly trading volumes above $2 billion. Proceeds have supported further bitcoin acquisitions, the note said.

Bitcoin traded near $73,600 at the time of the report. Earlier this year, Bernstein characterized prevailing bearish arguments as the ‘weakest bitcoin bear case in history’ and reiterated a long-term price target of $150,000 for 2026, noting bitcoin was around $70,000 when that target was restated in February. The note disclosed that lead analyst Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies.