AI mega‑IPOs vie with Bitcoin for institutional capital

OpenAI submitted a confidential S‑1 to the SEC that targets a possible public offering in September with a valuation range of $852 billion to $1 trillion. Goldman Sachs projects $160 billion in U.S. IPO proceeds for 2026, a forecast that includes SpaceX’s planned $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation and Anthropic after a recent private valuation near $965 billion. The combined potential supply from SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic would exceed the entire 2025 U.S. IPO market by as much as four times.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.7 billion in outflows in the first week of June, following a separate stretch that saw roughly $4.4 billion leave over 13 consecutive sessions. On May 28 one fund recorded a roughly $528 million withdrawal, its second-largest single-day redemption. Flow data over the past year show AI and semiconductor equities up about 170% while Bitcoin declined roughly 40%.

Market activity on June 3 illustrated the split: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 5.9% that day while Bitcoin fell about 4% intraday. Fund flows and redemption data point to reallocations of institutional capital into AI and semiconductor equities at the same time crypto funds experienced net redemptions.

There is an estimated $8 trillion held in U.S. money market funds; SpaceX’s $75 billion target equals roughly 1% of that pool. OpenAI’s filings report that the company is currently spending more than it earns, with a cash burn of about $1.22 for every $1 of revenue, and project goals that include 50 million consumer subscribers and an enterprise revenue run rate of $25 billion annually.

Market strategists outline two scenarios for how large equity listings and IPO activity may interact with Bitcoin and ETF flows. One scenario describes a market where successful pricing and strong demand for AI and related listings restore demand for growth equities and attract ETF buyers back to Bitcoin. The alternative scenario describes a timeline in which large equity offerings absorb speculative capital that previously flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, prolonging ETF outflows.

Data points tracked by market participants include correlations and technical indicators. Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rose after institutional milestones and peaked near 0.87 in 2024. A 14‑day moving average of ETF flows has historically troughed near local Bitcoin price bottoms. Prediction‑market pricing places the probability of Bitcoin rising above $100,000 before January 2027 at about 21%.

Goldman Sachs notes that volatility and concentrated exposure to software stocks remain risks to its $160 billion IPO forecast. Market observers also monitor technical levels for Bitcoin, including a 30‑day moving average near $75,685 and a 200‑day moving average near $78,840, as indicators of price trend changes.