VanEck CEO sees Bitcoin bottom, expects 2026 recovery

In a Monday interview, VanEck CEO Jan van Eck described Bitcoin as nearing a bottom as the market’s four-year halving cycle winds down. At the time, BTC traded around $68,400, up 2.6% in 24 hours. He expects a gradual recovery later this year.

He attributed recent price action less to daily fundamentals and more to Bitcoin’s programmed supply. The network has a hard cap of 21 million coins, and the halving cuts miner rewards about every four years, which he views as the main driver of long‑term trends.

Outlining that framework, van Eck pointed to 2026 as the fourth year in Bitcoin’s typical four‑year pattern, historically the down year following three annual gains. “There’s been an investing cycle, Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, goes down pretty massively in that fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. So that’s why we are in a Bitcoin bear market. Now I think we are making a bottom.”

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin was up 7.6%. VanEck projects a measured pickup through the rest of the year as the cycle progresses, while avoiding emphasis on short‑term signals. “Our view coming into 2026 is that Bitcoin is governed by a limited supply at 21 million, and the halving cycle where the Bitcoin miners who run the network get paid half the number of Bitcoin every four years,” van Eck stated.

He also linked recent gains to rising tensions in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli air strikes in Iran and retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel. “When one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you gonna move money around? And I do think it’s a very, very crypto‑friendly region, UAE, Dubai, everything,” he said. “So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would wanna use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”

Whether Bitcoin still follows a four‑year rhythm is a topic of debate as institutional participation grows. Some market participants cite demand from spot exchange‑traded funds, a softer U.S. dollar and regulatory changes as factors that could reduce the halving’s impact. Others contend the supply schedule continues to shape market phases. VanEck’s latest comments reflect the latter view.