Polymarket drops nuclear bet after 22% odds spark backlash

Polymarket has archived a market that allowed wagers on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated this year, removing the contract hours after posting a 22% year-end probability on X. The change came as the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission advanced a rulemaking process for event contracts.

The market, titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?,” had drawn heavy activity before it was taken down. Platform data previously showed more than $838,000 in volume across timelines that included March 31, June 30, and dates running through 2027. The contract’s removal followed an online backlash after the 22% figure was publicized.

Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker argued that markets tied to war and mass-casualty events are inappropriate. “I think it’s pretty clear we shouldn’t have betting on nuclear weapons being used in a conflict,” he stated. “Whatever small amount of utility we might get from learning the probability of that happening is offset by how terrible it is to let people speculate on that outcome,” he said. “You can also send false signals on this if the market is thinly traded. And obviously, people profiting from inside information is grotesque.”

Gouker pointed to gaps in oversight between U.S.-regulated and offshore platforms. “The problem is there is no regulation of Polymarket International,” he noted. “While Polymarket does have a regulated prediction market under the CFTC, that agency doesn’t have any direct say over what happens at the international site.“ “And by allowing it to have a CFTC entity in the U.S., it seems to be tacit approval of the rest-of-world site.”

Concerns about conflict-linked trading have intensified. In the hours before joint strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, more than 150 accounts placed large, correctly timed wagers predicting an American strike by the following day, with a late surge of about $855,000 in bets, based on trading patterns reviewed after the event. A user operating under the handle “Magamyman” recorded more than $553,000 in gains from positions tied to the strike and the status of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On-chain analysis highlighted six suspected insiders who collectively netted about $1.2 million in the hours before that conflict began, with many of the accounts newly created and focused on the same event.

Regulators are moving to clarify the legal framework. The CFTC this week submitted an advance notice of proposed rulemaking to the Office of Management and Budget, the first formal step that allows the agency to seek public input before drafting rules. The effort aims to set a single federal standard across all 50 states, defining which types of event contracts are permitted and under what conditions.

International authorities have increased pressure on the sector, with bans reported in more than a dozen jurisdictions. Policymakers and regulators have raised concerns that markets tied to war, elections, and high-profile deaths could invite insider trading, distort public understanding when order books are thin, and hinder broader acceptance of event-based trading.

Polymarket operates an international platform along with a separate U.S.-facing entity. The company has not issued a public statement on the archived nuclear detonation market while the industry awaits further clarity from the CFTC’s rulemaking process.