Hourly crypto outflows from Iran spiked after Feb. 28 strikes

Chainalysis found about $10.3 million in cryptocurrency left Iran’s major exchanges in the hours after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28, with withdrawals continuing into March 2.

Hourly outflows, which had been low before the strikes, rose sharply once news of the attacks spread and at times approached $2 million per hour.

The firm warned that short-term onchain signals can be distorted by internet throttling, exchange outages and other operational security measures that follow such events. Chainalysis wrote, “The truth is that from this close to the events, it’s extremely difficult to confidently separate retail flight from service-level wallet management, from state-related activity.”

Chainalysis reported transfers from Iranian platforms to overseas mainstream exchanges, other domestic platforms and a large share to addresses labeled as “other wallets.” The firm noted those destinations could include retail users moving assets into self-custody, exchanges shifting liquidity to reduce onchain visibility, or actors linked to the state routing funds through local venues.

Where the $10.3 million ultimately landed remains unclear. More detailed wallet-level tracing will be needed to track onward movements.

In a January report, Chainalysis estimated Iran’s crypto ecosystem could reach about $7.8 billion in 2025 and found trading volumes and onchain transfers often spike around domestic unrest, regional clashes and sanctions escalations.

The firm pointed to earlier episodes in which bitcoin withdrawals from Iranian exchanges rose in the days before government-imposed internet blackouts, flattened once connectivity was cut, and resumed when access returned. That sequence suggested some users moved funds into self-custody before access was restricted.

Chainalysis also referenced a 2025 hack of a major local platform that resulted in the theft of more than $90 million and noted platforms may move liquidity away from well-known wallets during periods of heightened political tension.

The firm will continue to monitor flows and provide further analysis as wallet-level traces emerge and connectivity in Iran returns to normal.