Zuckerberg backs Arena, Meta’s points-based prediction app

Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to build a standalone smartphone app called Arena that will let users forecast real-world outcomes using points rather than cash. Two people familiar with the plans described the project as a company priority. Meta plans to promote the app across Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, platforms that together reach more than 3.5 billion daily users.

Arena will use a points-based system at launch instead of real-money wagers. The design aims to avoid many licensing requirements and regulatory limits that affect real-money prediction markets in the United States and other jurisdictions. Meta expects to rely on its existing social apps to drive user adoption.

Meta previously launched a prediction app called Forecast in 2020 and shut it down in 2022. Arena is expected to be offered alongside Facebook’s instant and social games and to be promoted through the company’s advertising and discovery channels.

Meta’s advertising rules allow promotion of social casino-style games when players cannot win money or anything of monetary value. Ads for real-money gambling are permitted only from authorized advertisers operating in legally allowed markets.

The broader prediction market sector has grown rapidly. Combined monthly trading volume across major platforms reached about $24 billion in April, up from roughly $5 billion in September 2025. An investment firm has projected the market could reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.

Regulatory uncertainty remains. Federal regulators have proposed rules that would bar contracts tied to war, assassinations and terrorism while leaving other categories, such as sports-event contracts, less clearly defined. Several U.S. states have filed legal challenges arguing that prediction markets amount to gambling and should be regulated at the state level; those cases are pending and may be appealed to higher courts.

Meta has faced scrutiny over gambling-related advertising across its platforms. Company data reviewed last year indicated roughly 10% of 2024 revenue was tied to ads classified as scams or banned goods, a category that includes unlicensed online casinos. Internal models reportedly flagged advertisers only when they assigned a very high probability of fraud. Regulators in several countries have pressed Meta about unlicensed gambling promotions. A Netherlands trade group has filed legal complaints and a complaint with the European Commission, alleging widespread promotion of illegal gambling operators and estimating that illegal operators accounted for over 95% of gambling ads targeting Dutch users.

Meta has not announced a launch date or detailed features for Arena. A points-based initial format would allow testing of user engagement and moderation systems while avoiding many licensing hurdles. Any decision to add real-money wagering later would depend on evolving regulator guidance and ongoing litigation.