XRP Near $1 as Older Holders Remain Deeply Underwater

XRP traded around $1.08 on July 14 while data from Glassnode shows holders who bought six to 12 months ago have an average cost basis near $2.22, leaving that cohort with unrealized losses. A price above $1.11 would put the most recent buyers into profit, and a rise to $1.36 would reach the token’s aggregate realized price.

Glassnode cohort data indicates the six- to 12-month group needs about a 107% gain from current levels to reach its $2.22 average cost. The one- to two-year cohort has a realized price near $1.89. Glassnode’s aggregate realized price for circulating XRP is roughly $1.36, and its net unrealized profit/loss metric sat near -0.252, meaning unrealized losses exceed unrealized gains across the tracked supply.

Derivatives markets show mixed positioning. CoinGlass data for July 12 recorded XRP perpetual funding rates ranging from -0.016% on Kraken to +0.010% on Bitget and Huobi. Four of eight tracked venues were short-biased with negative funding, while four were long-biased with positive funding. Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short perpetual positions meant to align futures with spot prices; the spread reflects differences in user composition and each exchange’s mark-price systems.

Trading volumes remain concentrated in futures. CoinGlass reported 24-hour XRP futures volume above $1.7 billion versus spot volume near $290 million, a futures-to-spot ratio of about 5.9 to 1. Open interest in XRP futures stood near $2.3 billion, down from June levels.

Price levels carry specific implications for holders. Clearing $1.11 would make the most recent cohort profitable and could pressure venues where shorts are paid to hold positions. A move to the $1.36 aggregate realized price would begin to repair losses across a broader segment of holders. A decisive break below $1.00 would put recent buyers into losses for the first time and could trigger unwinds at venues where traders are paying to stay long.

Macro and flow data provide context. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities in mid-July pushed Brent crude toward $77.60 and supported the U.S. dollar, while money markets priced in roughly 37 basis points of further Fed tightening for the year. U.S.-listed spot XRP ETFs recorded about $7.2 million in net outflows in the July 6–10 week, driven by a $7.29 million withdrawal from a single fund; in the same week U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows near $197 million.

Glassnode notes its realized price method records the average price at which coins last moved on-chain and can capture transfers and custody changes as well as buys and sells. CoinGlass advises that funding-rate differences by venue are influenced by user mix, margin practices, contract volume and mark-price systems, and that funding should be considered alongside open interest and liquidation data. XRP faces upside tests at $1.11 and $1.36 and a downside test at $1.00.