World Cup Drives Prediction Markets Above $50B in June

A Macquarie Equity Research report found prediction markets produced more than $50 billion in trading volume in June, driven by FIFA World Cup activity. Kalshi generated about $33 billion, or roughly 65% of the market.

June was a record month for the sector and implies an annualized industry run rate above $500 billion. Macquarie’s analysts noted sports accounted for about half of all activity during the month and attributed the volume spike mainly to World Cup betting.

Kalshi’s estimated share rose from about 57% in May to 65% in June. Macquarie reported World Cup Winner markets generated roughly $1 billion on Kalshi and about $4 billion on Polymarket’s global platform. Robinhood-backed Rothera produced billions in World Cup trading within weeks of launching, the report said.

Macquarie highlighted partnerships and product launches that expanded access. Kalshi linked to ADI Predictstreet, FIFA’s official prediction market partner. The report stated: “ADI appears to have acquired a valuable asset (FIFA rights) but lacked the user base and liquidity to fully monetize it.” ADI ran about 126,000 trades in its first 18 days, according to the report.

Other developments include Polymarket partnerships with Liga MX and Genius Sports, DraftKings launching its exchange DKeX, and reports that Meta is exploring a standalone prediction-market app that would use a points-based system instead of real-money trading. Macquarie said distribution and platform access may be key factors for future market leaders.

Macquarie flagged regulatory risk as a central uncertainty. The report described a Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposal from the previous administration that would ban contracts tied to war, terrorism and assassinations while largely preserving sports-event contracts. The report warned a change in administration could lead to stricter federal or state rules, and operators are contesting with several states over whether sports-event contracts are federally regulated derivatives or unlawful gambling products.

Macquarie previously forecast the 2026 FIFA World Cup would generate more than $50 billion in global wagering outside prediction markets. The June figures show heightened activity on prediction platforms during the World Cup and continued expansion of entrants, partnerships and product experiments across the sector.