VanEck’s Sigel: Bitcoin could top $1M in five years

Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, projected that Bitcoin will top $1 million within five years and said institutional demand is shifting toward the digital currency. Prediction markets assign roughly a 9% probability that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030.

Sigel made the forecast during a Wednesday interview, citing the first central bank purchase of Bitcoin for reserves as evidence of changing institutional behavior. He compared adoption to the spread of video games across age groups and added, “We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years.”

VanEck’s longer-term base-case model forecasts Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050. Other investment firms and analysts have published six-figure targets as well. Some scenarios from ARK Invest range from $710,000 in a base case to $1.5 million in an optimistic case. Analysts at other firms and chief investment officers at crypto-focused asset managers have also outlined bullish price paths.

At the time of the forecast, Bitcoin was trading near $80,000. On Thursday it opened at $81,423.91, the highest opening since January 31. The coin has risen about 18.2% over the past month and remains 15.9% lower than a year earlier. Bitcoin’s all-time high was $126,198.07 on Oct. 6, 2025.

Prediction markets show more cautious timing. Traders on one platform estimate a roughly 27% chance that Bitcoin will reach $1 million during the 2040s and about a 9% chance it will do so before 2030. Another market prices a 2% probability of a $1 million Bitcoin in 2026 and a 69% probability of it reaching $90,000. Platforms that allow betting on future outcomes have attracted institutional capital; one exchange raised $1 billion in a recent funding round and reported an 800% increase in institutional trading volume over six months.

Sigel cautioned that Bitcoin is a “highly cyclical asset” and said its path to any price target will include large swings. He also warned, “There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so it’s going to be cycles along the way.” Some investors remain skeptical: one prominent fund manager has questioned Bitcoin’s suitability as a global reserve asset, and supporters of gold continue to promote traditional safe-haven alternatives.

Institutional analysts and prediction-market traders currently differ on both the probability and timing of a seven-figure Bitcoin. The forecasts and market probabilities outline contrasting views on how quickly and how far the price may rise.