U.S. Strikes in Iran Leave Markets Calm, Bitcoin Volatile

U.S. military forces carried out self‑defense strikes on Monday in southern Iran targeting missile launch infrastructure and vessels suspected of placing mines. The action occurred during an existing ceasefire and was described by officials as taken with restraint.

Global markets showed a muted immediate response. Brent crude rose more than 2% to about $98.50 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded near $91.95. U.S. equity futures were higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 opened roughly 1% above recent levels in premarket trading. Ten‑year Treasury yields ticked lower, the dollar spot index was largely unchanged, and gold slipped.

Bitcoin traded modestly lower, near $77,100, with roughly $21.5 billion in 24‑hour volume. Total crypto market capitalization was around $2.56 trillion and Bitcoin’s market share stood at about 60%.

Market participants were monitoring a transmission path from oil prices to inflation expectations to interest rates and ETF flows. A sustained rise in oil prices could affect inflation and the outlook for interest rates. If oil prices remain below prior stress levels, the event may not prompt a broad re‑pricing of inflation or rates.

Pricing tools showed about a 56% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined outflow of $105.2 million on May 22; ETF flow data for the trading day following the holiday was not yet available.

The U.S. cash trading session was expected to provide further confirmation because it reunites traditional risk desks, ETF market makers, miners and proxy stocks in a single window. Deeper ETF outflows and weakness in Bitcoin proxy equities would signal reduced exposure from traditional allocators, while stabilizing ETF flows and firm proxy equities would indicate more limited market impact.

Flow data and trading in oil, rates, the dollar and ETF‑linked instruments were set to determine whether the overnight calm persisted during the U.S. trading day.