US-Iran Talks Push Oil Down, Bitcoin Hits Three-Month High

Reports of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran sent Brent crude down about 11% to roughly $98 a barrel and lifted Bitcoin above $81,000, its highest level in three months. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,366.25, bond yields declined and gold fell. Officials and intermediaries say negotiators are nearing agreement on a preliminary 14-point memorandum that would halt hostilities and open a 30-day window for detailed talks on sanctions, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear limits. Pakistan, which has served as the main intermediary, said a response from Tehran is expected soon; a Pakistani source close to the talks added, “We will close this very soon. We are getting close.” U.S. envoys involved in the discussions include Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. President Donald Trump described the talks as “very good” on his social feed and warned that if Iran rejects the offer “the bombing starts” and future strikes would be “at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” Traders moved quickly after the reports. Market participants noted the drop in crude removed an immediate inflation risk tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global oil shipments. Bitcoin has risen about 25% since the conflict began; the S&P 500 has gained about 8% over the same period and gold is down roughly 11%. Participants pointed to structural changes in crypto markets that have strengthened the link between Bitcoin and macro events, including greater institutional adoption and the growth of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said, “Gold is no longer the default. Digital assets are increasingly being considered alongside it.” Not all parties expressed confidence that a deal is imminent. An Iranian lawmaker described the reported framework as “more of an American wish-list than a reality” and warned Iran “has its finger on the trigger” if concessions fall short. U.S. negotiators have not addressed several longstanding issues in the draft, including limits on Iran’s missile program, support for proxy groups and the status of more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. If both sides accept the preliminary terms, a 30-day negotiation period would begin to work through sanctions relief, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and stricter nuclear controls. Traders said oil and Bitcoin have acted as near-term gauges of investor expectations as the talks progress. For now, markets reflected a rapid unwinding of positions that had been driven by the conflict, while political and technical hurdles remain before any final settlement.