Trump backs CFTC oversight of prediction markets

On May 27, 2026, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that prediction markets are a “Financial Market,” urged that “the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive,” and praised CFTC Chairman Michael Selig: “Mike Selig, CFTC Chairman, and respected by all, is doing a great job. Thank you, Mike!” He also attacked several state officials, writing, “We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules!”

The comments came amid a legal and regulatory dispute over whether contracts tied to future events should be regulated under federal commodities law or treated as gambling under state statutes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission argues the Commodity Exchange Act grants it exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts listed on designated contract markets. In response to state restrictions, the agency has filed suits against Minnesota and New York.

Minnesota passed a direct ban on prediction markets. New York’s attorney general has sued two major operators over their platforms. Other states with legislative or enforcement activity include Nevada, New Jersey, Maryland and Rhode Island. Some governors and attorneys general have issued executive directives or proposed rules aimed at insider trading and market access.

Prediction markets let people buy and sell contracts tied to outcomes such as elections, sports results or economic indicators. Market prices reflect traders’ collective view of the probability of each outcome. Operators have offered contracts on elections, economic indicators, commodity prices and sports events.

Trump’s May post marked a sharper endorsement than comments he made in April. At that time he told reporters, “You know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” and added, “I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is now.” The May statement framed the markets as financial products and called for federal oversight.

The president and his family have financial ties to the sector. Last year the Trump social media company announced a partnership with Crypto.com to develop markets on elections, economic indicators, commodity prices and sports; those plans have since been scaled back. Donald Trump Jr. serves as a paid adviser to one prediction market firm and holds an investment in another.

Supporters of federal oversight say treating event contracts as financial products would create a uniform regulatory framework nationwide. State officials maintain that some prediction markets function as gambling and should be regulated under state law. Ongoing litigation and new state measures mean the legal status and operating rules for prediction markets remain unsettled.