Super Micro rallies 18% on strong AI guidance despite $2B miss

Super Micro Computer shares jumped 18% in extended trading Tuesday after the company issued fiscal Q4 guidance tied to AI infrastructure demand. The company reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $10.24 billion, below analysts’ estimate of $12.33 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.84, $0.22 above estimates. The stock reaction followed stronger-than-expected forward sales and profit forecasts.

Management attributed the quarter’s revenue shortfall to customers not being ready with sufficient power and networking equipment for planned cloud deployments. Finance chief David Weigand pointed to supply-chain disruptions and higher memory module prices as additional factors that reduced shipments. Revenue rose 123% year over year.

For fiscal Q4 2026, the company projected net sales of $11.0 billion to $12.5 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.65 to $0.79 per share. Management reported gross margin widened to 10.1% in the quarter versus Wall Street’s 6.75% estimate and indicated it could exceed $12 billion in revenue next quarter if conditions hold. The full-year revenue target was narrowed to start at $38.9 billion, down from an earlier target above $40 billion. Guidance assumes a GAAP tax rate around 19.4%, a non-GAAP tax rate near 20.4% and a share count of up to 712 million.

The company is responding to a federal criminal investigation that alleges individuals tied to a U.S. server maker shipped Nvidia-powered servers to China. Super Micro identified defendants that include an executive co-founder, a manager and a contractor, and identified Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw as no longer affiliated with the firm. The board opened an internal investigation led by its lead independent director and the audit committee chair, and the company will cooperate with authorities. Board advisor Brian Burke warned the probe’s findings could affect the company’s value and personnel.

CEO Charles Liang highlighted margin recovery and growth in the company’s DCBBS business and said Super Micro expects to meet demand from AI and enterprise customers. “Our margin recovery and the rapid growth of our DCBBS business demonstrate that our business remains robust,” Liang said. Management noted customer relationships with suppliers including Broadcom and Nvidia remain intact.

Analysts and investors will monitor order fulfillment, customer readiness for power and networking, and component costs to assess whether the company can execute on its data center plans. For now, the company’s profit metrics and near-term AI guidance lifted the stock despite the quarterly revenue miss.