Strait of Hormuz transit collapses as Dated Brent hits $144

Daily vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from about 120–140 transits a day before the attacks began on Feb. 28 to just five–seven, leaving more than 600 ships, including 325 tankers, stranded in the Gulf. Dated Brent physical crude reached $144 a barrel as June Brent futures traded near $96.51 on Friday, creating a large gap between the cash price for immediate delivery and futures for later months.

The price gap reflects a shortage of barrels available for immediate shipment. Martijn Rats of Morgan Stanley pointed out that ICE Brent futures are financial contracts, while Dated Brent reflects the price for oil that is ready to load and sail.

Industry sources and market analysts identified repeated attacks and ongoing security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz as the trigger for the disruption. Shipping intelligence firms reported the sharp fall in transits and current estimates show more than 600 ships held up in the Gulf region.

Even if the ceasefire holds, analysts expect only a modest return of traffic, with safe passages possibly limited to 10–15 vessels a day. Iran has required that vessels coordinate with its naval forces when transiting the strait. U.S. officials have accused Iran of not upholding a “safe passage” agreement reached as part of the ceasefire, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has countered that the United States is not honoring its side of the deal. Additional talks aimed at a permanent ceasefire are scheduled in Islamabad.

Countries that depend on Gulf crude or use the route for fuel shipments are moving to secure alternative supplies. Singapore and Australia said they will accelerate negotiations on a legally binding energy and critical supplies agreement; Australia supplies more than one-third of Singapore’s LNG, while Singapore supplies about 26% of Australia’s refined fuel imports. Singapore has consolidated gas purchases under a single organization to manage risk and pursue longer-term contracts. Japan plans to release more oil from national reserves in May next year, roughly 20 days of domestic consumption, and is pursuing routes that avoid the Strait of Hormuz. As of April 6, Japan reported oil stocks sufficient for 230 days of consumption, including 143 days in government reserves.

Andrejka Bernatova, founder and CEO of Dynamix Corporation III, described the $144 Dated Brent print as a warning: “Dated Brent at $144 is not just a price record. It’s the physical market telling you that real barrels are becoming scarce.” Shipping executives and energy analysts said effects on tanker markets and physical supply will likely persist even if diplomatic talks advance. Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy warned that “tanker prices will likely stay high and oil supply will remain limited for a while,” noting that negotiation progress does not always translate into immediate improvements on the water.

The Strait of Hormuz links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and typically carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. The reduction in daily traffic and the resulting bottleneck in available cargoes are driving the divergence between cash oil prices for immediate delivery and futures prices for later months.