Resilient U.S. Jobs Data Sends Bitcoin Below $64,000

Initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 for the week ending June 13, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3% for a third month. Bitcoin slid nearly 3% to below $64,000 after the labor data lowered market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The Labor Department report showed initial claims declined by 4,000. Continuing claims rose by 24,000 to about 1.81 million, and the average duration of unemployment increased to 11.6 weeks, the longest since late 2021. May payrolls added 172,000 jobs, leaving the three-month average near 188,000.

At the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 17, Chair Kevin Warsh left the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. The committee’s median projection for the end of 2026 moved to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, and nine of 18 participants expect at least one rate increase this year. The Fed removed forward guidance from its statement and raised its year-end personal consumption expenditures inflation forecast to 3.6% from 2.7%. Warsh told reporters the committee would “deliver price stability.”

Market pricing changed after the meeting and the jobs report. Futures traders placed the odds of a December rate increase near 85%, expectations for a 2026 rate cut fell toward zero, the two-year Treasury yield rose about 16 basis points to roughly 4.22%, and the dollar index reached its highest level in more than a year.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted a reported $82.2 million net outflow on the Wednesday following the Fed’s projections. Bitcoin had touched an intraday high near $66,315 the day before the jobless claims release, then reversed course as markets recalibrated rate expectations.

Market participants parse each labor metric for different signals. Initial claims indicate whether firms are laying off workers. Continuing claims and the average duration show how quickly displaced workers return to work. Payrolls measure job creation, the unemployment rate gauges available labor slack, and wage growth points to potential inflation pressure. These data points feed into expectations for the Fed’s policy path.

With the Fed no longer providing explicit forward guidance, upcoming CPI, PCE, payrolls and continuing-claims releases will be monitored for their influence on rate expectations. Traders are watching Treasury yields, the dollar index and ETF flows as indicators of how those data affect markets, including Bitcoin.