Researcher finds UK gambling survey overstates participation

Daniel Waugh, a researcher at the University of Liverpool Management School, presented an analysis at the Eadington Conference in Las Vegas last week comparing the Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB) with administrative records from licensed casinos, betting exchange operator Betfair and Football Pools Limited. The GSGB wave covered July–October 2025.

The GSGB wave produced 5,883 responses and reported an address-level response rate of 18%, below the 22% target. The survey applies weighting to adjust for non-response and to improve representativeness.

For in-person casino table game visits, Waugh calculated that GSGB participation figures implied between 1.7 million and 2.9 million visits during the study periods. Licensed casino operators’ records for comparable periods showed roughly 1.0 million recorded visits. The survey asked specifically about in-person table game visits, while operators estimate that 40% to 80% of visits involve no table play.

On betting exchanges, the GSGB implied 467,499 to 611,768 participants. Betfair’s active customer counts for the same periods were 172,409 to 177,051. Waugh’s presentation noted Betfair represents about 85% of the U.K. betting exchange market.

For Football Pools, the GSGB implied 862,961 participants, while Football Pools Limited recorded 108,699 unique customers for comparable periods.

Waugh presented percentage comparisons showing GSGB estimates exceeded administrative data by 408% to 628% for casino participation, 164% to 225% for betting exchanges, and 694% for Football Pools.

Waugh told delegates he had shared his analysis with the Gambling Commission several months earlier and warned that reliance on the GSGB for population-level statistics could influence regulatory policy. At the conference he said: “The data shows that-for the activities where I was able to obtain data-the GSGB massively overstates gambling participation.”

A Gambling Commission spokesperson defended the GSGB methodology, described the survey as one of the largest and most comprehensive gambling surveys in the world and noted its development began in 2021 with pilot and experimental phases. The spokesperson cited independent peer review by Professor Patrick Sturgis of the London School of Economics, who described the development as “exemplary in all respects.” The Commission noted the GSGB became an official statistic in July 2024, that it compares survey results with other datasets including a Regular Feed of Operator Core Data pilot, and that Waugh’s analysis has not been peer reviewed.

Questions about GSGB figures emerged after the survey published its first official results in 2024. Waugh said the GSGB may provide useful information when considered alongside NHS statistics, operator records and open banking data, but added it should not be used as the sole measure of gambling participation.