Prediction markets: court deadlines and World Cup trading

Court deadlines in two state cases and heavy World Cup trading are driving the latest U.S. prediction market coverage. Defendants in Wisconsin must respond to the state’s motion to remand the case to state court by June 15. Wisconsin says the dispute belongs in state court; defendants argue federal court is appropriate because the issues involve federal commodities law and the Commodity Exchange Act. The state also filed a preliminary injunction in case the court denies remand.

In Tennessee, Kalshi’s response brief is due June 17 in an appeal of a preliminary injunction that prevented state officials from enforcing a cease-and-desist order. Tennessee asked the Sixth Circuit to overturn the lower court order. Both filings will address where the disputes should be tried and whether state regulators can enforce their orders.

Federal enforcement activity has continued. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on June 12 filed a suit against New Mexico, the agency’s eighth action challenging state attempts to restrict prediction markets. Washington’s case returned to state court in May after a federal judge granted remand and the Ninth Circuit rejected a request to halt that transfer. States, tribes, operators and the CFTC have filed cases in multiple jurisdictions, producing overlapping litigation and a steady flow of filings, injunction requests and appeals.

Market activity around the 2026 FIFA World Cup has been large. Polymarket’s global platform has recorded more than $2.36 billion in cumulative World Cup-related volume, adding roughly $400 million since the tournament began. Kalshi’s World Cup markets have generated about $281 million in trading, with roughly $180 million added since kickoff. The expanded 48-team format increases the number of matches, including additional elimination games, which may affect trading volume as the tournament advances.

The U.S. Open in golf began June 18 and also drew market interest. Before play started, the U.S. Open market recorded over $30 million in trading, compared with The Masters’ more than $37 million in earlier volume. On Kalshi, Scottie Scheffler held an implied 14%–15% chance of victory for several weeks; Rory McIlroy’s implied probability declined from about 9% to roughly 7%.

On legislation, the Rhode Island Senate passed S 3118 to end the state’s sports betting monopoly and authorize additional operators; the bill is now in the House Finance Committee. Two responsible-gambling measures, S 10092 and S 7908, passed the New York Senate and await Assembly consideration; they aim to limit minors’ exposure to gambling advertising and strengthen protections against underage sports betting. Arizona lawmakers sent SB 1671 to Governor Katie Hobbs; the bill would expand oversight and reporting requirements for gaming regulators and continue the state’s gaming, racing and combat sports commissions through 2032.

The legal and market developments have produced a patchwork of cases and significant event-driven trading. Multiple filings and regulatory actions remain active across state and federal courts.