Predict.fun: 82% odds Polymarket will leave Polygon by 2027

A Predict.fun betting market opened April 27 shows an 82% probability that Polymarket will migrate off the Polygon network before 12:00 AM on Jan. 1, 2027. The market has attracted more than $1.7 million in volume; 26% of traders expect Polymarket to remain on Polygon at that timestamp.

The market defines a migration as an announcement by Polymarket or its founder Shane Coplan on X or in an official press release, plus at least one non-test trade on a new primary blockchain that is not Polygon. Predict.fun set Jan. 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM as the settlement deadline.

Predict.fun clarified what counts as a new chain: any blockchain, rollup, appchain, layer-2 or layer-3 execution environment that was not operational or publicly scheduled when the market opened. If Polymarket expands across multiple chains, resolution will follow the chain the company names as primary; if no primary chain is named, the network with the most user activity will be treated as primary. If a chosen layer or rollup is not listed on Predict.fun, the market will settle to the parent chain if that parent is listed; otherwise the “other blockchain” position wins.

The market includes payout examples. If Polymarket moved to opBNB or zkBNB, bets on BNB Chain would pay about $196 for every $1 wagered. If the parent chain is unlisted, the “other blockchain” outcome would pay roughly $69.99 per $1.

Traders increased wagers after a 24-hour period in which Polymarket accounted for roughly $860,000 of the $1.18 million in fees Polygon collected. The next-largest application on Polygon generated about $181,731 in the same period. Polygon has begun efforts to raise $100 million to develop a payments business.

Polymarket has teased a new collateral token called Polymarket USD and left open the possibility of launching on a dedicated chain. Predict.fun’s market shows a 67% chance Polymarket will establish its own chain, up from 55% earlier in the month.

Prediction markets drew wider attention after Polymarket predicted the 2024 U.S. presidential result ahead of many polls. Observers including Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin note that people use prediction markets to test views against real stakes.

Predict.fun defined resolution rules in advance to reduce the chance of disputed outcomes after a past incident led another market operator to refund traders when settlement became complicated. Until Polymarket issues an official announcement or records activity on another primary chain, prediction markets remain the available public measure of where the platform will host its service in 2027.