Polymarket World Cup Bets Lose Millions After Draws

Bettors on Polymarket lost millions after draws in matches involving Spain, the Netherlands and Belgium erased large win-only wagers and produced sizable payouts to wallets that bet against outright wins.

On June 14 Spain held about 75% possession and took 27 shots against Cape Verde but the game finished 0-0. Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha was named player of the match. A newly created Polymarket wallet called fishalive, which joined the platform in June 2026 and placed two recorded predictions, redeemed roughly $4.7 million on a “Spain not to win” contract and about $8.5 million on a Cape Verde +2.5 spread. Polymarket Sports reported a $400,000 stake at roughly 9% odds cashed out for $4,702,769.23, and public ledger data show one large position was placed about eight minutes before kickoff.

Other large bettors also lost sizable stakes. An account identified as betoor619 backed Spain to win with nearly $1 million at around 92% implied odds and lost the entire position when the match ended in a draw. A trader using the name FlickRaw lost about $4.2 million after placing roughly $2.7 million on the Netherlands to beat Japan and $1.5 million on Belgium to beat Egypt; the Netherlands-Japan match finished 2-2 after a late equalizer and Belgium drew 1-1 with Egypt. Another account, leeeroyjenkins, staked $8.6 million on Belgium and would have received about $13.1 million had Belgium won; the draw erased that ticket. Polymarket’s live tracking displayed profit-and-loss changes in real time as results were confirmed.

Polymarket’s World Cup markets have attracted large volume. The platform’s World Cup Winner market has logged about $2.46 billion in volume. The broader 2026 World Cup lineup spans 362 active markets totaling roughly $2.5 billion in trades. The Spain-Cape Verde match generated about $64 million in trading activity. Polymarket’s winner board listed France at about 17.6%, Spain at about 13.9%, with Portugal and England near 10.8% and 10.5%, respectively. The World Cup Winner contract is scheduled to resolve around July 20.

Match-level contracts on Polymarket settle in roughly 90 minutes and records are visible on-chain. Win-only bets pay only if a team finishes with a higher score than its opponent and are wiped out by a draw. Spread contracts and “not to win” contracts pay on draws and can yield asymmetric payouts when favorites do not win. In the Spain example, contracts that paid on a draw turned a modest stake into multi-million-dollar redemptions.

Regulatory developments have followed the market’s growth. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued draft rules on June 10 proposing federal oversight of prediction markets and noting sports contracts can contribute to price discovery. State regulators, tribes and gaming interests have raised concerns about licensing and access. Spain briefly blocked access to Polymarket and a similar platform in late May over licensing questions.

Polymarket’s public ledger and rapid settlement process made the flow of funds and large payouts visible in real time as the group-stage matches produced several high-profile upsets and draws.