Polymarket Bets Anticipated Meta Layoffs as AI Reshapes Jobs

Prediction markets placed large wagers that Meta would reduce staff before the company announced plans to eliminate about 8,000 positions. The cuts affect roughly 10 percent of Meta’s workforce, based on a headcount near 79,000, and are scheduled to begin on May 20. Meta will report first-quarter results on April 29.

Traders on Polymarket put about $112,000 into markets tied to Meta’s employee count and stock performance. One market showed a 96 percent probability that Meta ended the quarter with more than 75,000 workers and a 55 percent probability of more than 77,000. The platform’s broader market on tech layoffs has held near 79 percent. A competing exchange has recorded over $30 million in bets on related markets. Market activity coincided with a roughly 3 percent rise in Meta’s share price when the layoff plans first leaked.

Bank of America has set a price target of $885 for Meta and projected the restructuring could yield $7 billion to $8 billion in annual savings. Company leaders have linked workforce changes to artificial intelligence. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg earlier noted that projects once requiring large teams can now be handled by “a single very talented person.” Salesforce chief Marc Benioff reported his support staff fell from about 9,000 to roughly 5,000 “because I need less heads.” Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told employees the company expected new AI tools to reduce corporate headcount as efficiency improves.

OpenAI is planning a different path. The company aims to grow from around 4,500 employees to about 8,000 by the end of 2026, with most hires in product development, engineering, research and sales. The company’s valuation is near $840 billion and it expects to launch its own hiring platform in mid-2026. The hiring drive reflects demand for teams that build and commercialize AI systems.

Some industry figures have warned that coding and engineering roles may change rapidly. Former Anthropic leader Dario Amodei warned that coding could be handled increasingly by AI models and predicted that within a year AI might write most code. Anthropic’s current job postings still show multiple openings across sales and engineering, with some roles offering total compensation in the high six figures.

Data tracking employment events shows more than 95,000 tech workers lost jobs across over 240 separate events so far in 2026. The first quarter recorded between 78,000 and 91,000 cuts, compared with about 30,000 in the same period last year. A survey of more than 750 chief financial officers found more than 80 percent reported zero productivity gains from AI to date, while the same survey projected roughly 502,000 AI-related job cuts in 2026.

Companies reducing staff say AI-driven efficiencies are affecting corporate teams. Firms building AI tools and products are expanding technical and sales headcount. Meta’s April 29 earnings report and the May 20 layoffs will be watched for details on cost savings and how companies are reallocating talent as AI is adopted.