Messi’s paid Instagram post boosts Kalshi’s World Cup profile

Lionel Messi published a paid Instagram post tied to Kalshi’s sponsorship of the Argentina Football Association. The post featured teammates Nicolás Otamendi and Rodrigo De Paul, promoted an AFA jersey giveaway and highlighted Kalshi’s market on whether Argentina will repeat as World Cup champions. The post displayed an implied probability of 8.9% for Argentina. Messi’s account has more than 500 million followers and the content drew about 1.4 million likes within days.

Kalshi announced on June 10 that it had become an official sponsor of the AFA for the duration of the 2026 World Cup. The agreement grants Kalshi the right to use the federation’s crest, run joint social campaigns and co-branded activations. Genius Sports, the AFA’s official data and streaming partner, will provide official match data to support the creation and settlement of Kalshi’s sports-event contracts. Kalshi will take part in Genius Sports’ integrity information-sharing processes.

The Instagram activation followed a string of sports marketing agreements by Kalshi. The company signed NBA two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in February and golfer Bryson DeChambeau in January. Earlier in the month Kalshi ran a paid campaign featuring football manager José Mourinho that attracted more than 137,000 likes. Messi’s post reached a larger audience than those prior activations.

Kalshi reported a record $5.1 billion in notional trading volume during the opening week of the World Cup. One financial estimate projects more than $50 billion could be wagered across the 2026 tournament, with most activity expected through traditional sportsbooks; prediction markets have also been active during the event.

Regulatory uncertainty affects prediction markets in several jurisdictions. Some U.S. states say sports-event contracts fall under state gambling authority. Minnesota enacted a ban on prediction markets in May. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has moved to block state enforcement actions in Arizona, Minnesota, New York, Illinois and Connecticut. A Buenos Aires court ordered the blocking of Polymarket in Argentina in March. Industry observers expect litigation over state and federal jurisdiction could reach the Supreme Court.

The paid Instagram promotion increased Kalshi’s visibility during the World Cup build-up while the company operates under its AFA sponsorship and the new data arrangement with Genius Sports and continues to contend with legal and regulatory challenges.