March CPI 3.7% as Iran war lifts prices; Morgan Stanley adds BTC

March consumer-price inflation is expected to rise to 3.7% year-over-year when the March CPI report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET, up from 2.4% in February. The broader consensus anticipates a monthly increase near 0.93%, while one nowcasting model places annual inflation at about 3.16%.

Oil prices have moved from roughly $70 a barrel before the conflict to above $110, contributing to higher pump prices and increases in jet fuel, shipping and the cost of goods that travel by truck, rail or ship.

At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised its 2026 inflation projection from 2.4% to 2.7% and edged up its estimate of the longer-run neutral rate. Seven of 19 FOMC participants now project zero rate cuts for 2026. A regional Federal Reserve office has flagged that tariff-driven pass-through could peak in the second quarter of 2026, adding another source of upward pressure on consumer prices.

Traders are watching the CPI print for its potential to change near-term rate expectations and market volatility. Institutional investors have continued multi-year capital allocations that run independently of monthly data.

Morgan Stanley launched a bank-issued spot Bitcoin ETF, MSBT, which recorded about $34 million in inflows on its first day and roughly 1.6 million shares traded. ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the debut as “in the top 1% of all ETF launches.” The broader spot Bitcoin ETF complex recorded more than $545 million in net inflows this week. Separately, a large corporate bitcoin holder, Strategy, added 4,871 BTC to its balance sheet, a purchase roughly equivalent to $330 million at current prices.

Diplomatic talks in Islamabad are being monitored for their potential impact on oil supply. The U.S. delegation is led by Vice President Vance and includes private-sector participants; Iran’s delegation is led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Any credible agreement that increases vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would affect oil market dynamics.

Markets will also take the March CPI into account ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on April 28–29, where the data could influence the Fed’s policy discussions.